In this table, Scotland is cropped out of the screenshot at right, and it did not show any safety signals. The conservative method of looking for at least 1.5 on the 95% lower bound on the ratio of observed events to expected events was used in order to indicate strong safety signals.
For pericarditis, Moderna (mRNA-1273) and Astra-Zeneca (ChAdOx1) had safety signals both overall and within individual countries — while Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) had safety signals in Australia and Canada. The worst 95% lower bound is Moderna in Victoria, Australia — indicating over 7 times the pericarditis expected.
For myocarditis, Pfizer and Moderna had overall safety signals, while Astra-Zeneca had within-country safety signals. The worst 95% lower bound was again Moderna in Victoria, showing over 15 times the myocarditis which had been expected.
For acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM), both Astra-Zeneca and Moderna had safety signals (right-side crop leaves out both New Zealand and Scotland).
When myocarditis and pericarditis are examined by dose, the worst 95% lower bound was the 4th dose of Astra-Zeneca, leading to over 14 times the pericarditis that you would have expected.
With various other disorders, the worst 95% lower bound was with the third dose of the protein-based platform used by Novavax (NVT), leading to cerebral venous sinus thrombosis that was over 13 times what was expected.
When products increase serious adverse events so clearly — so that the even the 95% lower bound is 7 or more times beyond expectations — then they should be halted and re-examined.
Reference
[study of 99 million COVID shot recipients] — K. Faksova, D. Walsh, Y. Jiang, J. Griffin, A. Phillips, A. Gentile, J.C. Kwong, K. Macartney, M. Naus, Z. Grange, S. Escolano, G. Sepulveda, A. Shetty, A. Pillsbury, C. Sullivan, Z. Naveed, N.Z. Janjua, N. Giglio, J. Perälä, S. Nasreen, H. Gidding, P. Hovi, T. Vo, F. Cui, L. Deng, L. Cullen, M. Artama, H. Lu, H.J. Clothier, K. Batty, J. Paynter, H. Petousis-Harris, J. Buttery, S. Black, A. Hviid, COVID-19 vaccines and adverse events of special interest: A multinational Global Vaccine Data Network (GVDN) cohort study of 99 million vaccinated individuals, Vaccine, Volume 42, Issue 9, 2024, Pages 2200-2211, ISSN 0264-410X, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.01.100