Those in the age group of 30 to 39 were never in danger of high death from COVID. The infection fatality rate (IFR) of original COVID for them was only 0.00011 (1 death per 9,091 infections). But using a normative metric for age-specific excess mortality — when the second-best year of prior years is your baseline — second-best was in 2011.
Here is the implied death count that this age band of ~45 million Americans would have had each year if they always had the exact same population as in 2022 — but if they were subjected to their yearly death rates:
Notice how the second-best year (2011) is still below 60,000 — so that, when the 2021 death count exceeds 100,000, then that is equivalent to 40,000 excess deaths for that year. Because the median IFR for original COVID for the age band of 30 to 39 is only 0.00011 (0.011%), explaining those excess deaths by COVID requires many infections:
Even in 2022, if you attempted to explain the excess death using COVID, then it would require more than 7 COVID infections per person for that year alone. To get all 3 years of excess deaths explained by COVID in this age group requires an average of 23 COVID infections per person.
The evidence suggests that COVID cannot be the reason for the excess deaths.
Reference
[median IFR of original COVID] — Pezzullo AM, Axfors C, Contopoulos-Ioannidis DG, Apostolatos A, Ioannidis JPA. Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly population. Environ Res. 2023 Jan 1;216(Pt 3):114655. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114655. Epub 2022 Oct 28. PMID: 36341800; PMCID: PMC9613797. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9613797/
[Normative (second-best is baseline) method for age-specific excess death analyses] — Shkolnikov VM, Klimkin I, McKee M, Jdanov DA, Alustiza-Galarza A, Németh L, Timonin SA, Nepomuceno MR, Andreev EM, Leon DA. What should be the baseline when calculating excess mortality? New approaches suggest that we have underestimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and previous winter peaks. SSM Popul Health. 2022 Jun;18:101118. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101118. Epub 2022 May 6. PMID: 35573866; PMCID: PMC9075981. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9075981/