Assessing an absolute viral load by way of a PCR test can be haphazard, because different tests might point to different absolute viral loads. One person’s test may estimate only 1,000 copies of viral RNA per milliliter (mL), but a different brand of PCR test might estimate 10,000 copies of viral RNA/mL — a ten-fold difference.
Lower cycle threshold (Ct) values represent higher viral loads.
While estimating absolute viral load is tricky, estimating relative viral load is not: By repeating the same test with the same parameters, you can reliably track changes in the viral load over time. When daily mean Ct values in England were tracked over time, it was revealed that the rollout of COVID shots coincided with high viral load:
The orange line is the mean daily Ct value for spike gene negative (S-) PCR tests, a so-called proxy for what has been called the Alpha variant. The green line in 2020, indicating spike gene positive (S+), is for wild-type COVID. The Delta variant in mid-2021 was S+ (green) and Omicron BA.1 in December 2021 was S- (orange).
Variant (S-gene)
wild-type (+)
alpha (-)
delta (+)
omicron (-)
Using a relative baseline Ct value of 21 for all PCR tests conducted in England, the only time that you see the mean Ct value fall below that threshold — indicating very high viral loads — is after the COVID shot rollout. That steep drop in mean Ct values (steep rise in viral loads) occurred during the month of December 2020.
NOTE: Each integer drop of a Ct value corresponds to a relative doubling of viral copies (moving from Ct=22 down to Ct=21 doubles the viral copies). Each downward shift of 3.3 — like seen in the orange line (“alpha variant”) graphed from Nov 2020 to Jan 2021 — is a 10-fold increase in relative viral load.
COVID shot uptake in England petered out after 22 Dec 2021, as people were becoming fed up with taking them and then experiencing adverse effects from them, while also noticing that they were not preventing the spread of COVID infections:
During that time when COVID shot uptake rates were very high in England (large “area-under-the-curve”), high viral loads — Ct values below 21 — were sustained. After COVID shot uptake began diminishing (after 22 Dec 2021), then the viral loads of COVID infections finally lowered (Ct values finally rose).
Evidence suggests that — contrary to expectations — COVID shots actually increased COVID viral loads in England, and that it was the reduced uptake of COVID shots (after December 2021) that finally led to a decrease in COVID viral loads, allowing the pandemic to end.
Reference
Harrison RE, Hamada A, Haswell N, Groves A, Vihta KD, Cella K, Garner S, Walker AS, Seale AC. Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020-2022. Emerg Infect Dis. 2023 Oct;29(10):2024-2031. doi: 10.3201/eid2910.230030. Epub 2023 Sep 7. PMID: 37678158; PMCID: PMC10521603. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10521603/