A key “selling point” for COVID shots is that we were told that they prevent severe COVID. While the definition of “severe COVID” is fraught with problems, assuming those definitions for a baseline/benchmark provides for a conservative case:
Because it errs on the side of over-estimation to begin with, later numbers need be much higher to show harm
Back in the 2020 phase 3 Moderna trial (data up to 7 Nov 2020), the background rate of severe COVID in those who got placebo was 4.072 per 1,000 person-years of observation time:
Note how in the text above only 3 of the 11 severe COVID cases were hospitalized. Using the background severe COVID rate as a benchmark to compare to, then you can ask if the COVID shots actually cut the rate of severe COVID from their expected baseline.
In the absence of a protective effect from COVID shots, about a million severe COVID cases would be expected for 2021, when there were 261 million over the age of 15 (assuming the younger ones are not expected to be at risk for severe COVID).
But if a million severe COVID cases are expected in a year, and if 63% of the USA gets dosed with COVID shots that year — and if shots did nothing — then you’d expect around 630,000 severe COVID cases among those who got dosed with COVID shots. Actually, because all 63% don’t “start off the year” fully-jabbed, you expect even less.
In the absence of protection, in a group which steadily increases as a growing share of the population (up to a maximum of 63% after one year of time) you’d expect somewhere around 350,000 to 400,000 severe COVID cases among those who took a shot that we are presuming did not work (using person-time from the dosing day).
But if only ~400,000 total severe COVID cases are expected from dosed US adults in 2021, then how many did we actually get from that group? When checking the VAERS system for breakthrough COVID infections after COVID shots — and limiting the findings to just those that were so severe they required hospitalization* — you get this:
That’s 31,616 case reports of severe COVID among those taking COVID shots up to 31 Dec 2021. But because not all cases get reported, we can adjust the number up using the median capture rate of underlying adverse events in passive surveillance systems:
6% of underlying adverse events actually get reported
Applying that median rate of capture to the 31,616 case reports reveals an estimated 527,000 cases of severe COVID among those who took COVID shots in 2021. Because this number is higher than the expected number of 400,000 total severe COVID cases — under the assumption that COVID shots do nothing — it indicates actual harm.
It indicates that COVID shots led to severe COVID.
*Like the definition for severe COVID, the definition of a serious adverse event report is broad in that it includes a minimum circumstance of requiring an initial hospitalization or extension of a current hospitalization (it also includes permanent disability and death).
The Moderna severe rate was 3.7 times the hospitalization rate. Using the less conservative measure of hospitalization (1.111 hospitalizations per 1,000 person-years), then the situation looks even worse for COVID shots: only 290,000 total hospitalizations originally expected (vs. 527,000 estimated actual hospitalizations).
Reference
[4 severe COVID cases per 1,000 person-years] — FDA Briefing Document. Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine. https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download
[63% were dosed by the end of 2021, but not by the beginning of 2021] — OWID. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
[31,000-plus severe COVID reports to VAERS in 2021] — MedAlerts online tool for searching VAERS: https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/index.php
[6% median capture rate (94% under-reporting rate) in passive surveillance] — Hazell L, Shakir SA. Under-reporting of adverse drug reactions : a systematic review. Drug Saf. 2006;29(5):385-96. doi: 10.2165/00002018-200629050-00003. PMID: 16689555. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16689555/