Update: I made an error below when computing probability of observing 5 events when the mean rate is 2. The actual probability for there to have been 5 deaths among young Canadian doctors in a 12-month span is 0.053. An updated graphic, fixing the error, is now published.
Canadian doctors were mandated COVID vaccines, so watching their health unfold is of great interest.
While data may be incomplete regarding the total number of Canadian doctor deaths in those under age 30, some rudimentary analysis can already be performed. If further deaths are found, the numbers will only get worse, so what follows is a best-case scenario for youthful Canadian doctor mortality.
One estimate of the total number of Canadian doctors under age 30 is 2,920.
When the death rate for age 25 to 29 year olds in the US was adjusted for the estimated difference in death rate which doctors face, when viewed relative to the general population, it was discovered that the upper limit of expected annual deaths in young Canadian doctors is 2.1 deaths per year.
Importantly, that estimate — that doctors die at a rate that is only 76% of the general population — is very likely an overestimate of doctor mortality when applied to the younger ages. In a study cited below, it was found that, when young, doctors do not even die at rates as high as one-half of their age-matched (non-doctor) counterparts.
At approximately 5-6 months post-vaccine, or post-booster, deaths appear to spike — even if it is during summer months when (Canadian) deaths are lower.
When two episodes of “vaccine+6 months” are joined together for a 12-month period, deaths among young doctors were more than twice what was expected (more than a 100% increase in death among the young).
[edit] That kind of excess is only ever seen once in every 19 years or so. And that’s using the most conservative estimate on the young doctor mortality rate, relative to the general population.
Reference
[Gateway Pundit article] — https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/10/canadian-doctor-urges-canadian-medical-association-investigate-unusual-death-80-young-doctors-since-vaccine-rollout-800-baseline-expected-number/
[Second source of doctor death notifications] — https://www.cma.ca/memoriam
[general population death rate for those of age 25 to 29] — https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr60/nvsr60_03.pdf
[adjustment factor for doctor death rate vs. general population: the highest rate that doctors die at is still only 76% of the rate of the general population] — https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(00)00201-4/fulltext
Pull-Quote:
… a 1980–1988 study of young U.S. physicians whose deaths were reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association found SMRs [standardized mortality ratios] less than one half that of the same-age general population.
Notes:
Update: I made an error above when computing probability of observing 5 events when the mean rate is 2. The actual probability for there to have been 5 deaths among young Canadian doctors in a 12-month span is 0.053. An updated graphic, fixing the error, is now published.