As Jessica Rose reports here, fatal adverse event reports in the VAERS system are off the charts for COVID jabs. But what about the rate of serious adverse events which required at least some hospitalization, if not life-long effects or even death?
In that Substack, she links out to an interview she did with Del Bigtree where this screenshot shows up:
That particular shot was referring to a CEO of an insurance company who was fired after reporting that at least 4% of people taking COVID jabs were requiring medical treatment that the insurance company had been paying for.
When I saw that screenshot I knew that I had seen that number somewhere before, so I went digging and found where I saw it. In a survey of people who got mRNA shots (as well as other types of COVID jabs), over 4% of people who got Dose 2 or Dose 3 reported requiring medical treatment:
[click to enlarge]
To give perspective, we’ll just use the lower percentage requiring medical care after Dose 3 (4.49%). That’s equivalent to 449 people per 10,000. It’s also equivalent to 4,490 per 100,000. And it’s also equivalent to 44,900 per million.
But not all of the adverse events which require medical care are serious. The next logical step was to look for the fraction or share of all of them which are serious. One estimate comes from those who are hospitalized in general.
When 1,680 hospitalized patients were tracked for adverse events, 46% of all adverse events that required medical care were serious adverse events.
Applying that proportion to our baseline number of 44,900 per million leads to an estimated “serious adverse event rate” for COVID mRNA shots of 20,654 serious adverse events per million doses administered.
Let’s compare that “serious AE” rate to what was reported to the VAERS system over the course of 11 years:
[click to enlarge]
In cell I18 of the spreadsheet, you can see that the reporting rate of serious adverse events (AE) to the VAERS system is 9.6 serious AEs per million net doses distributed (distributed and not sent back).
But the estimate of 20,654 serious AEs per million COVID jab doses administered is over 2,000 times higher than that — though at typical passive surveillance AE capture rates running from 2%-18% of underlying background events, the VAERS reports indicate 50 to 480 underlying serious AEs per million.
The estimate, confirmed by two different sources (published survey; insurance company records) is that at least 2% of all who get COVID jab #2 or higher get an adverse event that is so serious that it puts them into the hospital.
Limitations
While the percentage who require medical care seems solid (confirmed by two kinds of sources), the actual “serious AE” share of all adverse events that do require care may be different from the 46% used in this analysis.
But even if only 10% of all who need care need it “seriously” (i.e., are hospitalized), the COVID jab serious adverse event profile would still be unprecedented. Ten percent of 44,900 per million is still 4,490 per million — which is still at least 10-90 times higher than typical vaccines, depending on the capture rate that you assign to VAERS.
Reference
[46% of all who get AEs severe enough to require medical care get serious AEs that require at least extended hospitalization] — BMJ. Contribution of adverse events to death of hospitalised patients. https://bmjopenquality.bmj.com/content/8/1/e000377
[over 4% of all who get Dose 2 of mRNA (or higher) require medical care] — Wang Y, Zhang Y, Zhang M, Zhang X, Li H, Wang Y, Wang W, Ji J, Wu L, Zheng D. The prevalence of adverse reactions among individuals with three-dose COVID-19 vaccination. J Infect Public Health. 2023 Jan;16(1):125-132. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2022.12.004. Epub 2022 Dec 6. PMID: 36516647; PMCID: PMC9724502. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9724502/