95% Did Worse in a Sample of 6 Billion
Comparing Excess Deaths before Vaccines to After Vaccines
If you collect data on the 29 countries which have the most people in them, you reach a total of 6 billion of the people of the earth. I sampled these 6 billion people to check to see if excess deaths came way, way down after vaccines rolled out (as would be expected if the vaccines worked).
The sample itself is essentially every nation on Earth with 50 million people or more.
For 95% of the people in the sample — i.e., for 5.6 billion out of the 6 billion people — vaccines made excess deaths worse than they were when we just had COVID (and no vaccine).
The first cutoff date used was 28 Dec 2020, and all accumulated excess deaths in all 29 countries were recorded. The second cutoff date was 27 Dec 2021, when the total accumulation was recorded again, subtracting the first from the second in order to get the excess death that was specific to 2021.
Here are 4 examples of excess deaths prior to vaccine (excess deaths in 2020), and excess deaths after vaccines rolled out (2021):
Germany
India
Japan
Phillipines
Given that circulating COVID variants had reduced in lethality by July of 2021, the evidence suggests that COVID vaccines are more than twice as dangerous as the original disease was, itself. The row at far right below is for the ratio of 2021 deaths to those in 2020:
The 29-nation average ratio of excess deaths in 2021 versus those in 2020 was 8.6, and a naive takeaway from that is that COVID vaccines are 8 times more deadly than COVID disease itself. But that is an unweighted average and it is likely to come down somewhat by weighting by population size.
The only 4 nations which were spared a worse fate with vaccines were Mexico, France, UK, and Italy — representing 5% of the sample when factoring in their population sizes:
Even as a weighted average though, COVID vaccines would appear to be more than twice as deadly as the original disease.
Reference
“Estimated cumulative excess deaths during COVID.” OWID. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid