99% Chance of Foul Play?

Post #1053

According to two different websites, one for 2020 and one for 2024, Trump gained 6.55 percentage points in the point spread overall. In 2020, Trump got 46.9% of the vote, while Biden got 51.3% — an election vote spread of 4.4%. But for 2024, Trump gained all of the ground needed to be dead-even, and then some.

When you add up the change in the spread, using the websites, it is a +6.55% change in favor of Trump. But an important question would be:

What change in vote spread got found in the 7 swing states?

If swing states as a group were representative of the population at large, then you can treat the 7 swing states as a sample from a finite population of 51 — 50 states + DC. But if you then test your sample against the overall improvement in vote spread, it isn’t anywhere near what would be expected:

[click to enlarge]

Gray-shaded states are swing states, brought over to the right side for two tests. The top test was just the absolute gain in Trump percentage. Overall it was +3.34% using the two websites, but in the 7 swing states, the mean was 1.85%. The p-value on it is found in cell R20, and was only 0.0019.

Even worse was the total gain in vote spread, tested at bottom-right. With a couple of assumptions, the value in cell R41 estimates the chance of foul play by Democrats in the 2024 election:

99.86%

Only 10 states surpassed the mean vote swing of 6.55% found between the 2020 and the 2024 elections (marked in yellow), and they are all in states which were not able to be crucial to the 2024 Electoral College outcome, so that by hypothetically “padding” Trump votes there, you will not necessarily improve his chances of election:

California
Florida
Illinois
Massachusetts
Mississippi
New Jersey
New York
Rhode Island
Texas

Instead of the actual padding of Trump votes, these states are more likely to be the ones merely left alone, so that all of the voter fraud would be concentrated in the other 40 states, preventing their change in vote spread from getting close to the average value of 6.55%.

In those other 40 states — where the shenanigans would be presumed to be more concentrated — the change in the vote spread was far below the 6.55% average. In the swing states, the difference from expected was so vast that it failed a t-test.

Conclusion

Because swing states are swing states because of containing roughly equal opposing forces found throughout the nation, not only are they a representative sample of what is true of the nation as a whole, they are the most-representative of all samples. If the nation as a whole experiences a 6.55% shift in vote spread, then swing states should, too.

The finding of only just over half as much change in vote spread as was found overall is therefore indicative of voter fraud occurring in the swing states. If no voter fraud occurred, then the vote spread in swing states would have changed by somewhere near the amount that the overall national vote spread changed.

Reference

[The American Presidency Project (2020 vote shares)] — https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/2020

[NBC relative 2024 vote shares] —Accessed on 11 Nov 2024. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/president-results