A Moderna Lot vs Flu Shot AERs by Age
Post #1207
In this prior report, 20 Moderna lots were compared to 5 seasons of flu shots in terms of the reporting rate for fatal adverse event reports (fatal AERs) per million doses among adults. After checking the average age of death in each case, most Moderna lots had an average age of death which was significantly higher than flu.
But one Moderna lot stood out because it had an average age of death that was not significantly different from the average age of death for flu shots: 026 A 21 A. Here is the age distribution for all fatal AERs from flu shots from the 5 seasons leading into the COVID event:
And here is the age distribution for Moderna lot # 026 A 21 A:
Only known ages were used for age distribution comparison, and there were 4 other fatal AERs found for this Moderna lot: 2 in age bracket 65-79, and 2 more in age bracket 80+. Here is how the weighted average ages look when side-by-side:
Cell H47 is selected so that you can see up top that its formula subtracts the mean age of a flu shot death (70.2) from the mean age of a death from this Moderna lot (73.3), resulting in a difference of about 3 years. Other Moderna lot deaths were, on average, 4-6 years older than flu shot deaths, but this lot (026 A 21 A) was only 3 years older.
But even though this Moderna lot had deaths that were, on average, just 3 years older than flu shot deaths, it had a fatal AER reporting rate per million that was 468x when compared to flu shots:
Cell E13 is selected so that you can see the formula for it up top, and it divides the fatal AER reporting rate per million doses for Moderna (75.8 fatal AERs per million) by the average from 5 seasons of flu shots in adults (0.2 fatal AERs per million). This analysis was restricted to fatal AERs that had an onset by Day 180.
After adjusting for age, this Moderna lot would still be hundreds of times more dangerous, based on the ratio of reporting rates for fatal AERs per million doses.
Crude Death Risk Adjustment:
When comparing the yearly rate that people die at by year of age, those who are 73 are 25%-30% more likely to die than those who are age 70. The second column from the left is the yearly death risk for males, and the column at far right is the yearly death risk for females. A crude adjustment would adjust flu deaths up by, say, 1.3x.
After this adjustment, Moderna shots would still be 360x more dangerous than flu shots, based on the reporting rate of fatal AERs per million doses.
Reference
[ICAN page with a link to the 17Mb PDF file showing Moderna lot sizes] — https://icandecide.org/article/exclusive-moderna-lot-and-dose-data-release/
[age distribution of those receiving flu shots in 2010-2020] — https://www.cdc.gov/fluvaxview/coverage-by-season/vaccination-2019-2020.html
[narrow-band age groups by year] — https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-by-five-year-age-group
[MedAlerts VAERS searching tool] — MedAlerts. https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/index.php
[Actuarial Life Table from Social Security Administration] — https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html