In a bad flu year, the average weekly deaths from pneumonia and influenza (P&I) can reach up to almost 12 weekly P&I deaths per million. The 26-week season average weekly deaths in 2017/18 was 14 weekly P&I deaths per million.
At 12 weekly deaths per million, two back-to-back severe flu seasons would lead to a two-year accumulated total of 1248 excess deaths per million.
In a bad war, such as World War I, average weekly deaths are about 74 weekly deaths per million (3829 yearly deaths per million; for 4.5 years of war). Two years of WWI-like deaths would cause the accumulation of 7658 excess deaths per million.
In a horrible genocide, such as the Holocaust, average weekly deaths are about 175 weekly deaths per million (9100 yearly deaths per million). Two years of Holocaust-like genocide would cause the accumulation of 18,200 excess deaths per million.
For the two years from 23 Feb 2020 to 20 Feb 2022, 33 nations accumulated more than twice the excess death as would be seen with back-to-back severe flu seasons (Iran is lowest, with accumulation of 2983.45 excess deaths per million).
A couple nations even reached WWI-like death rates, and Bulgaria reached an accumulation rate of excess death that was half of the Holocaust rate of excess death, far above the rate of excess death seen during world wars.
For these 33 nations in aggregate, most of the excess death accumulated in the second year rather than the first. This is especially concerning given it was the second year when vaccines were employed.
History will not look back on these last two years fondly. The rates of accumulation of excess death are disturbingly high in a handful of nations, in a couple of cases even surpassing the excess death rates seen in world war.
Reference
[2017/18 Weekly P&I deaths] — CDC “FluView” online tool. Available: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
[World War I death rate] — World War I casualties. Available: https://www.census.gov/history/pdf/reperes112018.pdf
[Holocaust kill rate (0.91% annualized)] — DEMOCIDE: NAZI GENOCIDE AND MASS MURDER. 20,946,000 Victims: Nazi Germany 1933 To 1945. RJ Rummel. Available: https://hawaii.edu/powerkills/NAZIS.CHAP1.HTM