In this prior installment, the full-data yearly death rate for those of age 45 to 49 was presented, but here is a zoomed-in analysis from the year of 2012 forward:
On the blue data points, there are error bars showing +/- one standard deviation above and below the regression line. As is easy to tell, the age-specific death rate in 2021 was dozens of standard deviations above projected deaths. The slight downward slope shows that, approximately every 7 years, one less person out of each 100,000 will die.
With unrounded numbers in the equation, the projected value for 2021 would be 311 deaths per 100,000, but the actual value was 434 deaths per 100,000 — about 40% above expectations.
Great find. Are we still waiting for 2022 and 2023 numbers?