April 2020 Excess Death in NYC

Post #550

Note: A major error was found in the graph of this post. An update is coming soon.

Using the month of February, along with a seasonality index, the recorded deaths in April of 2020 in New York City (NYC) showed huge excess. Here is how it compares to other mass casualty events, in terms of monthly excess deaths per million population:

As can be seen, the excess death in NYC was worse than world war. It was even worse than the world average of monthly excess death in the 1918 Spanish Flu. It was a rate of excess death which almost reached the average Holocaust kill rate for Germany + Occupied Europe.

All from a disease which, on its worst day, was never more than twice as bad as severe flu.

Reference

[monthly deaths by age and region] — CDC. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

[16,543,185 died in 54 months of fighting, from nations whose sum total of population was 960 million; USA lost 117,465 lives in 19 months of fighting in WWI, when US population was 92 M] — World War I casualties. Available: https://www.census.gov/history/pdf/reperes112018.pdf

[Annualized 0.91% kill rate of Holocaust (Germany + Occupied Europe)] — DEMOCIDE: NAZI GENOCIDE AND MASS MURDER. 20,946,000 Victims: Nazi Germany 1933 To 1945. By R.J. Rummel. Available: https://hawaii.edu/powerkills/NAZIS.CHAP1.HTM

[Best 1918 Spanish flu excess death estimate, excluding India, is 487 per 100,000] — Spreeuwenberg P, Kroneman M, Paget J. Reassessing the Global Mortality Burden of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. Am J Epidemiol. 2018 Dec 1;187(12):2561-2567. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwy191. PMID: 30202996; PMCID: PMC7314216. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7314216/

[most Spanish Flu deaths were not even from the Spanish Flu] — Morens DM, Taubenberger JK, Fauci AS. Predominant role of bacterial pneumonia as a cause of death in pandemic influenza: implications for pandemic influenza preparedness. J Infect Dis. 2008 Oct 1;198(7):962-70. doi: 10.1086/591708. PMID: 18710327; PMCID: PMC2599911. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2599911/

[age-specific infection fatality rate of wild-type COVID] — Pezzullo AM, Axfors C, Contopoulos-Ioannidis DG, Apostolatos A, Ioannidis JPA. Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly population. Environ Res. 2023 Jan 1;216(Pt 3):114655. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114655. Epub 2022 Oct 28. PMID: 36341800; PMCID: PMC9613797. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9613797/