When the CDC looked at 11 years of VAERS reports, they found 1.9 billion vaccine doses were distributed over the 11 years, and 2,142 deaths had been reported to the passive surveillance system — an average of 195 total deaths per year, and a rate of 1.1 death reported for every million net doses delivered.
But when researchers examined the first 6 months of VAERS data from 14 Dec 2020 (COVID vaccine rollout) up to 14 Jun 2021, they found 4471 vaccine-linked death reports after vetting out duplicates and miscoded ones.
Because 298.79 million vaccine doses had been administered by 14 Jun 2021, that works out to a vaccine-linked death rate of 15 deaths per million doses — more than a dozen times more death than is seen with typical vaccines.
A range of plausible capture rates for the VAERS system may be the interquartile (middle 50% of data) range found for adverse event reports for pharmaceuticals in general in a 2006 meta-analysis of 37 published studies on reporting rates to passive surveillance.
Here are the numbers:
—25th percentile capture rate: 2% of underlying adverse events
—Median capture rate: 6% of underlying adverse events
—75th percentile capture rate: 18% of underlying adverse events
The range from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile represents a range of plausible values on capture rates, and indicates underreporting factors of 6 to 50.
When just 2% of the underlying events make it into the VAERS system, you have to multiply the VAERS reports by 50 to get an estimate of the true incidence.
If 18% of all adverse events are getting captured by VAERS — the upper limit of plausibility for rate of capture — then you only multiply the number of VAERS reports by 6 to get an estimate of the true, underlying incidence.
After running through the numbers 3 times — once for each rate of capture — I compared the estimated vaccine-linked deaths to the total of all excess deaths which occurred in the United States from 14 Dec 2020 to 14 Jun 2021, as well as to the war deaths seen in World War I.
Deaths were put into monthly deaths per million population (MDpM) for easy comparison. The total excess death rate was almost 120 monthly excess deaths per million:
In 19 months of fighting in World War I, there were 117,465 American lives lost, for a monthly war death rate per million of 67 monthly war deaths per million population.
But at the median capture rate expected for passive surveillance systems — 6% capture — the estimated vaccine-linked death rate was 37 monthly deaths per million. That’s a vaccine-linked death rate which is still over half of what is seen during a world war.
If VAERS is only capturing 2% of the underlying deaths from vaccines, then vaccine-linked deaths explain essentially all of the excess death seen in the USA in the first half of 2021.
Even at the upper bound of plausible capture rates — where 18% of all vaccine-linked deaths are getting successfully reported to the VAERS system — you still had 25,000 vaccine-linked deaths in just the first 6 months of 2021.
When annualized, even the most conservative estimate indicates that vaccines are killing more people over the year (50,000 per year) than is seen with a typical flu season.
Even without any specification of capture rates, the COVID vaccine still has more than a dozen times as many death reports per million doses than typical vaccines do. It seems medically-reckless to continue a vaccine campaign in the face of such a ramped-up rate of serious adverse events.
And especially so when the disease no longer has an infection fatality rate that is any worse than seasonal flu.
Reference
[USA lost 117,465 lives in 19 months of fighting in WWI] — From: https://www.census.gov/history/pdf/reperes112018.pdf
[Estimated Cumulative Excess Death during COVID] — The Economist data. OWID. Available: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
[Average rate of VAERS death reports over 11 years of observation was 1.1 deaths per million net doses distributed] — MMWR Surveill Summ. 2003 Jan 24;52(1):1-24. Surveillance for safety after immunization: Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)--United States, 1991-2001. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5201a1.htm
[The plausible range of adverse event (AE) capture rates goes from a low of 2% up to a high of 18%: the interquartile range of the 37 studies reviewed] — Hazell L, Shakir SA. Under-reporting of adverse drug reactions : a systematic review. Drug Saf. 2006;29(5):385-96. doi: 10.2165/00002018-200629050-00003. PMID: 16689555. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16689555/
[Lancet study showing 4471 reported deaths for 298.79 million vaccine doses (15 deaths/M doses)] — Safety of mRNA vaccines administered during the initial 6 months of the US COVID-19 vaccination programme: an observational study of reports to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and v-safe. Available: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00054-8/fulltext#%20