Case:Death Ratio over Time

Post #691

An approximate time for a “COVID death” to occur after a “COVID case” gets confirmed is 2-to-3 weeks. Here is an analysis of the cases/deaths ratio on a 3-week time lag for two nations at opposite ends of the spectrum regarding strictness of COVID mitigation measures:

The USA (strict COVID mitigator) is represented at bottom with blue dots, and Sweden is orange. By May of 2021 in Sweden, there were 400 confirmed COVID cases per death, indicating that COVID cases were growing faster than COVID deaths, and a greater share of infections were getting confirmed, lowering the case fatality rate.

But in a nation with strict COVID mandates (USA), the case fatality rate stayed high — indicating that, if case-discoveries were roughly equal to Sweden’s, then COVID mitigation measures led to higher case fatality (lowered the resilience of COVID patients to the point where they died more in the USA than in Sweden).

By May 2021, Sweden is headed into “flu territory” — a typical ratio seen with seasonal flu. This indicates that, the less you try to mitigate COVID, the more it looks like flu.