Chance the central Texas flood is natural

Post #1323

EDIT: An error in this report has now been corrected, slightly increasing the chance that the central Texas flood was a “legitimately-natural occurrence.”

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As climate scientist, Dr. Matthew Wielicki, recently reported about, a harrowing story occurred over the Independence Day weekend involving floods in central Texas, and there are still people missing due to this horrific tragedy:

The state officials observed 26 feet of rise in the Guadalupe River in 0.75 hours (45 minutes) and — because of the very large advancement in the ability to modify weather, along with the post-COVID philosophy of “question everything” — it might pay off to calculate the probability that this was a naturally-occurring phenomenon.

Back in 2019, researchers were able to create 90 million gallons (340,000 cubic-meters) of precipitation with just 24 minutes of cloud-seeding. For perspective, the average daily rainfall over the entire city of Atlanta (132.4 square miles) is 283 million gallons — or about 2.1 million gallons per square mile. Imagine 90 million gallons vs. 2 million.

An average river flood might look like this:

Notice how, to add 11 feet to the river, it took 36 hours — starting just before midnight on a Saturday and then reaching 22 feet at exactly 12 noon on the following Monday. But the central Texas flood was in and around Kerr County:

And this area has hills, which can multiply the effect of rainfall, as the rain on the hills runs down into the river — so we cannot use a typical chart like above as a standard of how fast the river flooding can occur when it occurs naturally. Instead, we have to use hilly areas as the standard to measure this central Texas flood against:

Alright, now we have a standard to measure against:

—in less than an hour (~45 minutes) a river could rise by 9.5 feet if surrounded by hills

Now that we have the standard, let’s compute the probability that the 26-foot rise in the Guadalupe River — which also happened in 45 minutes — was a natural occurrence rather than being due to something like covert weather manipulation. When something has a rate of 9.5 per 45 minutes, what is the chance of seeing 26?:

NOTE: The Poisson probability distribution works when things have a mean rate.

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When a natural process has a mean rate of 9.5 per 45 minutes, then there is a probability — in middle row, but easier to read in the third row by ignoring the “1” — of between 7 and 8 chances in a million (0.000007474) of witnessing a rate of 26 per 45 minutes. The “7” shows up in the sixth decimal place, which is the “millionths” place.

At very top is the chance that there was a “special cause” for the central Texas flood (0.999992), rather than it being “naturally caused.” The prime suspect for that “special cause” is covert weather modification, and if true, it is likely that it involved drones that were small enough to not show up on radar.

While these cloud-seeding drones are pure speculation, the probability of the rate-of-rise almost definitely points to a special cause. It is not in the nature of rivers to rise by that much that fast without “help.”

Reference

[central Texas flood] — https://www.tpr.org/news/2025-07-05/heres-a-timeline-of-the-catastrophic-texas-floods

[researchers could create 90 M gallons of precipitation in 24 minutes] — https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1917204117

[typical river flood] — https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/dataset/river-levels-graphs

[river flood when surrounded by hills] — https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/floods/

[online graphing calculator] — https://ti84calc.com/