Circumstantial Evidence of Lack of Net Benefit
Order of magnitude of transiently-increased death is impossible to surmount
There is a saying “No pain, no gain” and it refers to the fact that, if you want to get better, then it often involves a transitory phase when things are worse. Vaccines work that way also, by introducing such a shock to your body that it results in hyper-activation of your immune system.
Evidence from Israel and now confirmed by recently-released death data in Sweden (including comparative death rates for those “never-jabbed”) suggest that the ramped-up mortality rates seen in the first several weeks of taking COVID vaccines is about an order of magnitude. Here is the early report from Israel.
Even the raw cases rise — i.e., the actual spread of the disease itself — when vaccine uptake levels go way up:
After taking enough vaccine doses to reach an estimated herd immunity threshold, a full percent (1%) of the Israeli population was “catching COVID” every 10 days.
But that’s like accidentally throwing gasoline on a fire. Once you witness the result of it, you stop doing it (if you are a rational person).
Recent data released by the Swedish government confirms early data released by the Israeli government: For a few weeks after taking a dose, you are ~10 times more likely to die.
This might be acceptable if vaccines came with large, and long-lasting, benefit — but the problem is that they do not. Against symptomatic Omicron, no type of COVID vaccine, and no amount of dosing or boosters by March of 2022, had led to sustained protection of at least 50% for more than 9 weeks (protection for more than approximately 2 months).
Here is a rough depiction of the normal situation with vaccination, and the special situation that we face today,
At bottom right is an open question about whether immune systems are “overtrained” by COVID vaccines, so that they actually become less flexible in regard to mounting things like a T-cell response. Vaccines can artificially boost antibodies but have the danger of causing a narrowly-tailored immune response which cannot keep up with a mutating virus.
One really bad cat that I often read about refers to this last possibility as: Original Antigenic Sin (“vaccine driven antigenic fixation”).
Reference
[Table 3. Vaccine Effectiveness against Symptomatic Disease Caused by the Delta and Omicron Variants] -- Andrews N, Stowe J, Kirsebom F, Toffa S, Rickeard T, Gallagher E, Gower C, Kall M, Groves N, O'Connell AM, Simons D, Blomquist PB, Zaidi A, Nash S, Iwani Binti Abdul Aziz N, Thelwall S, Dabrera G, Myers R, Amirthalingam G, Gharbia S, Barrett JC, Elson R, Ladhani SN, Ferguson N, Zambon M, Campbell CNJ, Brown K, Hopkins S, Chand M, Ramsay M, Lopez Bernal J. Covid-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant. N Engl J Med. 2022 Apr 21;386(16):1532-1546. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2119451. Epub 2022 Mar 2. PMID: 35249272; PMCID: PMC8908811. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8908811/
[Monthly Population in Sweden] — Population Statistics 2019-2022 (month) and 1998-2021 (year). https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/pong/tables-and-graphs/monthly-statistics--the-whole-country/population-statistics-2019-2022-month-and-1998-2021-year/
[Weekly Percent Share of Swedish Population who had ever taken even a single jab; along with age-breakdown] — OWID. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
[Report by Swedish researchers after their Freedom of Info Request got results (never-jabbed death rates almost always lower)] — Swedish Public Health Agency reporting has distorted mortality rates for the unvaccinated and the vaccinated. https://lakaruppropet.se/public-health-agency-reporting-has-distorted-mortality-rates-for-the-unvaccinated-and-vaccinated/
[population share of elderly in Sweden] — World Bank, Population ages 65 and above for Sweden [SPPOP65UPTOZSSWE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPPOP65UPTOZSSWE
[working-age population share in Sweden] — World Bank, Population Ages 15 to 64 for Sweden [SPPOP1564TOZSSWE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPPOP1564TOZSSWE