Coverage Extremes

Post #1012

According to the official narrative, you are not up-to-date on COVID shots unless you’ve had one during the prior 6 months. The uptake rate over the prior 6 months would let you estimate the “coverage” — the proportion of people “protected” from COVID because of having had a shot in the prior 6 months.

Extremes in coverage can be examined and a research question may be something like this one:

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What difference does it make if you have 32 times more coverage than other nations?

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In July of 2022, Hong Kong had 32 times as much of their population up-to-date on COVID shots than Israel did:

In Hong Kong, just under 96% were fully up-to-date on COVID shots, but in Israel, just under 4% were. Stretching back over those 6 months prior, and stretching forward for another 6 months, you can compare the accumulation of excess death under these two conditions:

1. when 96% are up-to-date (Hong Kong)

2. when only 4% are up-to-date (Israel)

This graph shows the accumulation of excess deaths per million:

Israel, with only 4% of its population up-to-date, began with 901.29 accumulated excess deaths per million and ended at 1333.51 accumulated excess deaths — adding 432.22 excess deaths per million over those 12 months. That’s similar to the yearly accumulation of excess death from a bad season of flu.

Hong Kong, with 96% of its population up-to-date, began with 418.73 accumulated excess deaths per million. But Hong Kong ended up with 2273.53 accumulated excess deaths per million — adding 1854.8 excess deaths per million over those 12 months.

In other words, having 32 times as much of the population up-to-date led to experiencing 4 times (quadruple) the accumulation of excess death. Evaluation of extremes in coverage levels reveals that higher COVID shot uptake led to higher excess death.