Crude Estimate of Young Deaths

Post #645

NOTE: This report extends analysis on the original obituary database presented here.

When searching a database of obituaries for numbers, such as for 32, or for 33, then not all of the “hits” that you get will be the person’s age at death. In some obituaries, the two-digits of 32 will be found in sentences like this:

“Born in 1932 …”

“Worked in the local factory for 32 years …”

But regarding the variability in the count of obituaries with “32” listed somewhere within them, from one year to the next, the “hits” should average out and a broad estimate is that somewhere from one-third of the reports, up to two-thirds of them, will have “32” refer to the person’s age, like this:

“John Q. Public, 32, passed away last Thursday …”

As a rough indication of those dying between the age of 32 and 38, here is the sum total of all obituaries that had two-digit numbers from 32 to 38:

There is a “safety signal” in the years of 2021 and 2022, where ~200,000 U.S. obituaries were seen containing the two-digit numbers from 32 to 38.

Given the broad estimate that from one- to two-thirds of the numbers will actually be for the ages inside of these obituaries, rather than for some other quantification, then there is not enough slack in the system to explain 2021 and 2022— because they each sit more than 75,000 higher than 2019 (more than “a third” of 200,000).

Evidence suggests that those from age 32 to 38 really did die more, because the difference is so large that it cannot be explained by a changing proportion of obituaries where the two-digit number was the age.

Even if the proportion of obituaries where the number was the age is free to float from one- to two-thirds at random, there is still indication of excess death among the young.

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Addendum

While collecting all hits for 32 up to 38, there were no anomalies in the data. But when I reached the number 39, a wild swing in obituary counts occurred, which was not commensurate with the first 7 years of data that I collected. That is the reason that this analysis stops at “38.”

Here are the notes where, in cells J19 to J25 (green and orange), unprecedented annual changes were found: