Decadal (10-yr) Share of Adverse Events

Post #1164

NOTE: The prior report on this topic is here.

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When examining the last 10 years for the frequency of events, you might expect that Year 10 has a count of events that is 10% of the total. In the case of the decade ending in 2021, we would have expected for the count of adverse event reports to be more than a 10% share of the total — because more shots were given out in 2021 than before.

A conservative correction would be to expect the 2021 year to contain 25% of the total reports of the prior decade, under the assumption that shots given in 2021 were 3 times larger than typical. Here is how that works out to be true, using a “1” to describe a typical year and a “3” to describe a year 3 times as large:

\(1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+3 = 12\)

That final year, being 3 times as large as the previous 9 years, brings the running total to 12 — and therefore accounts for 3 out of the 12 total, or 25% of the total. Knowing that we’ll be looking for a percentage that is 25% of the total, let’s view the reports for early-onset (before Day 5) disabled persons by year of dose:

Instead of being 25% of the total, as would be expected after adjusting 2021 for the number of doses given out, we find that 93% (92.99%) of all reports of early-onset disabled persons came from year 2021. Here is how the years look in a graph:

As you can see, 2021 is not 25% of the total for these 10 years — as would be expected if COVID shots were safe to take. 2021 is 93% of the total. Because 4,392 of the 4,442 reports of early-onset (by Day 4) disability in 2021 involved COVID shots, that means that roughly 99% of the height of that final bar is comprised by COVID shot reports.

This means that reports from COVID shots are more than 3.5x what was expected.

Reference

[URL for this search result] — https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/findfield.php?TABLE=ON&GROUP1=VACY&DISABLE=Yes&NUMDAYS[]=0&NUMDAYS[]=1&NUMDAYS[]=2&NUMDAYS[]=3&NUMDAYS[]=4&AGES[]=8&VAX_YEAR_LOW=2012&VAX_YEAR_HIGH=2021