Election Anomaly (2020)
Post #1050
Vigilant Fox reports Joe Rogan recently commenting on an extra 16 million Democrat votes that appeared in the 2020 presidential election but then disappeared in the 2024 election. I think Rogan got the story from Zero Hedge wherein the 2020 Democrat vote spike was referred to as “vapor votes” (here in one instant, gone in the next).
A trend of votes going back to 1992 could help, although for 3 elections (1992, 1996, 2000) there was a substantial 3rd-party candidate involved — getting millions of votes alongside the two parties. One way to address that is to reapportion all 3rd-party votes back into the Democrat (D) and Republican (R) vote totals, preserving the D/R ratio:
These adjusted vote totals indicate that Democrats have enjoyed a 2.7 million vote increase, on average, in each 4-year vote cycle. If trend held true, Biden would have gotten almost 71 million votes. But according to the established (orthodox) accounts of the election, Biden got over 81 million votes:
Biden’s vote total in 2020 (found in cell B13 below) violates a 95% Confidence Interval for this regression line (orange cell), although it fails to violate the more conservative 95% Prediction Interval (green cell):
The 95% Confidence Interval indicated that the expected vote total for Democrats would be found between the endpoints of 61.38 million and 80.46 million — but Biden’s total amounted to 81.28 million. The 95% Prediction Interval predicted that the next vote total to be found in 2020 would be between 56.14 and 85.7 million.
NOTE: Ignore the forecasted vote totals found in row 14, involving other extrapolation.