Excess Deaths in Nations best at doling out Jabs
The 38 nations with a million or more people who got half jabbed early
In this prior Substack, I examined the rate of excess death rate in the year prior to reaching 50% of the population who had had a single dose of COVID jabs, versus the excess death rate for the year after.
A modeling study had come out in October 2020 saying how, if half of everyone got a vaccine that had 50% efficacy, new COVID deaths would stop completely (by Year 3 of running the model). As luck would have it, Pfizer said its first jab had 52% efficacy.
In this post, I’m restricting the observations to only the very best nations who were able to get half of their populations jabbed at least once prior to the median date for all nations. Here are the yearly excess deaths per 100,000 (YEDp100k) for them in the year prior to achieving the “50% had at least one jab” milestone:
Notice how 14 of them didn’t have any high death prior to COVID jabs. And here is a graph with the year after reaching the milestone overlayed on top of it with orange dots added to these original blue ones:
Not much of a change occurred from reaching the milestone, and for many nations, things got worse. Israel is at far left, the first nation to get half of everyone jabbed, and they saw an increase in yearly excess death of +15 per 100,000 after reaching the milestone.
Here is a graph of the change in excess death rates only, where positive numbers indicate that excess death rates got higher after 50% had had a jab:
That’s 17 out of 38 nations who got increases in excess death rates rather than decreases. The average of all of these changes is +2.1 excess deaths per 100,000 — indicating that COVID jabs make it more likely for you to die.
Here is the same chart with notes in it:
And here are notes showing how there were 14 nations with excess death rates lower than the worst recent flu (Netherlands 2018; 54.4 YEDp100k), that number was cut by more than half after nations reached the milestone:
[click to enlarge]
Light orange signifies “high excess death” and dark orange signifies “very high excess death” (5 times more than the Netherlands in 2018). More nations moved into the “high excess death” category in Column L (after reaching 50% single-jabbed).
Reference
[Dose 1 Pfizer BNT162b2 had a claimed 52% VE] — Polack FP, Thomas SJ, Kitchin N, Absalon J, Gurtman A, Lockhart S, Perez JL, Pérez Marc G, Moreira ED, Zerbini C, Bailey R, Swanson KA, Roychoudhury S, Koury K, Li P, Kalina WV, Cooper D, Frenck RW Jr, Hammitt LL, Türeci Ö, Nell H, Schaefer A, Ünal S, Tresnan DB, Mather S, Dormitzer PR, Şahin U, Jansen KU, Gruber WC; C4591001 Clinical Trial Group. Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine. N Engl J Med. 2020 Dec 31;383(27):2603-2615. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2034577. Epub 2020 Dec 10. PMID: 33301246; PMCID: PMC7745181. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7745181/
[jabbing 50% of everyone with a jab that has 50% VE, along with social distancing, is supposed to (eventually) stop death in its tracks] — Good MF, Hawkes MT. The Interaction of Natural and Vaccine-Induced Immunity with Social Distancing Predicts the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic. mBio. 2020 Oct 23;11(5):e02617-20. doi: 10.1128/mBio.02617-20. PMID: 33097654; PMCID: PMC7587444. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7587444/
Quote from above: “A vaccine that is 50% effective and which is administered to 50% of the population would essentially halt any increase in deaths, if vaccine-induced immunity lasts for about 1 year.”
[yearly excess death during 2018 in the Netherlands was 54.4 per 100,000; when 9373 excess deaths were found and population was 17.23 million] — van Asten L, Harmsen CN, Stoeldraijer L, Klinkenberg D, Teirlinck AC, de Lange MMA, Meijer A, van de Kassteele J, van Gageldonk-Lafeber AB, van den Hof S, van der Hoek W. Excess Deaths during Influenza and Coronavirus Disease and Infection-Fatality Rate for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, the Netherlands. Emerg Infect Dis. 2021 Feb;27(2):411-420. doi: 10.3201/eid2702.202999. Epub 2021 Jan 4. PMID: 33395381; PMCID: PMC7853586. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7853586/
[jab data] — OWID. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
[excess death data] — OWID. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid