Excess Myopericarditis versus Excess GBS in 1976

Post #568

NOTE: The graph uses the term ‘myocarditis’ but the actual values showing there are for the combined term: myopericarditis.

In 1976, the swine flu vaccine was pulled from the market because of excess cases of a nervous system disorder called Guillain-Barre’ Syndrome (GBS).

An independent panel found that the rate for severe GBS cases among the vaccinated was in excess by 5.9 cases per million, and extrapolation reveals that total (severe + non-severe) excess GBS cases attributable to the vaccine would then be 9.2 per million.

But, because reported myopericarditis cases were 3.1 times what was expected, excess myopericarditis cases in military-aged (18-24) males with Dose 2 of Moderna were 364 per million — which is 40 times the excess of GBS cases which it took to get a vaccine shut down back in 1976.

If an excess of 9.2 per million of a serious adverse event (GBS) back in 1976 was enough to get a vaccine shut down, then an excess of 364 per million of another serious adverse event (myopericarditis) ought to do the same.

Imagine if police officers used such disparate standards as this when pulling you over for a speeding ticket:

In 1976, police officers would be willing to pull you over for going 20-mph in a “15-mph Zone” (5-mph in excess of the speed limit). But in 2023, those same police officers would let you exceed the speed limit by 40 times as much, without pulling you over.

But that means that you’d be driving 215-mph in a 15-mph Zone, while police officers look the other way and yawn. Onlookers would quietly say to themselves:

“The police are no longer doing their job. They’re letting people drive 200-mph over the speed limit. It’s gone all Mad Max out there.”

This analogy suggests that public health officials are no longer doing their job, just as if they were pretending to ignore Bugatti Veyron hypercars driving a full 200-mph over the speed limit — while telling everyone else:

“Everything is fine. There is nothing to see here. This kind of thing is ‘normal.’ Go back to your electronic devices.”

Reference

[1976 swine flu shot got pulled with just 0.59 excess severe GBS cases per 100,000 (5.9 per million) and 0.92 total excess GBS cases per 100,000 (9.2 per million)] — Sejvar, J.J., Pfeifer, D. & Schonberger, L.B. Guillain-Barré Syndrome Following Influenza Vaccination: Causal or Coincidental?. Curr Infect Dis Rep 13, 387–398 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11908-011-0194-8

[Moderna’s Dose 2 caused 364 excess myopericarditis cases per million in military-aged males] — Straus W, Urdaneta V, Esposito DB, Mansi JA, Sanz Rodriguez C, Burton P, Vega JM. Analysis of Myocarditis Among 252 Million mRNA-1273 Recipients Worldwide. Clin Infect Dis. 2023 Feb 8;76(3):e544-e552. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciac446. PMID: 35666513; PMCID: PMC9384217. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9384217/