Heavy Vaccine Uptake leads to ICU use
Repeated pattern of high vaccine uptake leading to high ICU use
Back on 30 Jul 2020, the US reached a local peak in ICU use per million population, when there were 44 COVID patients admitted to ICU for every million persons.
That’s the amount of ICU use which COVID can (did) cause, but the ICU needs for the situation where there is both COVID around, and also a vaccine for COVID, could be even higher than 44 in ICU per million — even if the circulating variants of COVID are no longer as lethal as they were back in July of 2020.
Here is a timeline of vaccine uptake and ICU needs:
(A) Part A is understandable because, back in December of 2020, COVID was still worse than flu. Although it bears mentioning that COVID vaccines would get introduced before the ICU use reached 75 in ICU per million (almost twice where it peaked before vaccines became available).
(B) Part B is not very understandable, because the dominant variant of COVID in circulation (Delta) was no longer even half as lethal as the Alpha variant which had been in circulation in Part A.
(C) Part C is even less understandable, because the dominant variant of COVID in circulation (Omicron) was no longer even half as lethal as Delta variant (no longer even a fourth as lethal as Alpha variant).
Evidence suggests that vaccines lead to increased ICU requirements and, in order to keep ICU capacity open, it appears necessary to cut down on the amount of vaccines given out (a full stop of vaccines appears to be in order).
The reason for this is because, every time that there is a surge in vaccine uptake, it has been followed by a surge in ICU use. Going forward, if each new surge in vaccine uptake is again (just like before) followed by a surge in severe COVID, then we should stop giving COVID vaccines.
The definition of “crazy” is repeating harmful behavior, while expecting that “this time, it is going to be DIFFERENT!” Let’s not continue to be crazy. It appears to be costing many lives, and that is unacceptable for a free and advanced nation. It’s positively shameful, actually.
Reference
[ICU use] — OWID. “Number of COVID-19 patients in ICU per million.” https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-icu-patients-per-million?country=~USA
[Daily Vaccine Uptake Rate] — OWID. “Daily share of the population receiving a COVID-19 vaccine dose.” https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
[As of 19 Jan 2021, from 52,000 COVID infections with Alpha (SGTF) variant, there were 104 deaths, 1 death per 500 Alpha infections (IFR=0.20%)] — UK Technical Briefing #5 (PDF file). Available general: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Available specific page: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/959426/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_5.pdf
[In almost 700,000 cases confirmed by sequencing, Delta was only 42% as lethal as Alpha (IFR=0.08%); COVID no longer more lethal than flu] — UK Technical Briefing #25. General page: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings
Available specific page: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025827/Technical_Briefing_25.pdf
[From 1.5 million confirmed cases, Omicron is (at most) 41% as lethal as Delta (IFR = 0.034%); COVID no longer even half as lethal as flu] — Nyberg T, Ferguson NM, Nash SG, Webster HH, Flaxman S, Andrews N, Hinsley W, Bernal JL, Kall M, Bhatt S, Blomquist P, Zaidi A, Volz E, Aziz NA, Harman K, Funk S, Abbott S; COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium, Hope R, Charlett A, Chand M, Ghani AC, Seaman SR, Dabrera G, De Angelis D, Presanis AM, Thelwall S. Comparative analysis of the risks of hospitalisation and death associated with SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) and delta (B.1.617.2) variants in England: a cohort study. Lancet. 2022 Mar 16:S0140-6736(22)00462-7. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00462-7. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 35305296; PMCID: PMC8926413. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8926413/