Hospitalizations Prevented versus Caused
Post #1476
Dr. Malone recently reported on a study out of Madrid showing an estimate of COVID shot benefit in kids of age 12-17 (younger kids had no statistically-significant benefit). Here is the supposed benefit kids got:
NOTE: The age 12-17 hospitalization efficacy (45%, with a lower bound of 18%) fails to meet original COVID WHO criteria which stated that the minimum acceptable efficacy against severe COVID disease is 70%, with a 95% lower bound efficacy of 30%. Even prevention of mild-yet-symptomatic COVID requires a 95% lower bound of 30%.
Unjabbed kids had a risk of being hospitalized “with” COVID of ~0.01% (one one-hundredth of 1%), but jabbed kids had risk just over half as high as that (0.0065%). If you use their estimate for the cases of myocarditis and pericarditis in boys that were caused by COVID shots, then it looks as if benefits outweigh that particular risk:
At an estimate of only 1.4 cases of myocarditis or pericarditis caused per 100,000, with 5.3 “hospitalizations with COVID” prevented per 100,000, it almost seems like there is some possible narrow margin of benefit. But don’t jump to conclusions. The chance of getting myocarditis or pericarditis has been estimated to be much higher elsewhere:
For boys of age 12-17 in Taiwan, the second dose of Pfizer led to 12.7 myocarditis or pericarditis cases per 100,000 (~127 cases per million) — over twice as high as the “5.3 per 100,000” benefit found in Madrid among those of age 12-17. Even using the 95% upper bound for protection (of 9 per 100,000) fails to justify use of these shots in kids.
But it gets worse …
In the USA, with arguably the highest population of boys of age 12-17 who got exposed to the shots, the second dose of Pfizer led to 14.7 excess myocarditis or pericarditis cases per 100,000 (147 excess cases per million) — almost 3x higher than the “5.3 per 100,000” benefit found in Madrid among those of age 12-17. But it gets even worse …
NOTE: Observe that in 2020 under COVID, male myocarditis rate was 2.1 per million.
In Hong Kong, boys of age 12-17 had 37.1 excess cases of myocarditis or pericarditis per 100,000 after the second dose of Pfizer — which is 7x the “5.3 per 100,000” benefit found in Madrid among those of age 12-17. That’s already a risk for a single condition that is 7x the supposed benefit, and there is “some” risk for other conditions as well.
Even the 95% lower bound (“LB95”) on excess cases of myocarditis or pericarditis in Hong Kong (25.1 per 100,000) is a risk which is more-than-quadruple the postulated benefit from the Madrid study (5.3 per 100,000). Even using the 95% upper bound of protection vs. the 95% lower bound of caused myocarditis/pericarditis fails the test.
The evidence suggests that the risk already outweighs the benefits — and that is using just one single risk condition.
Reference
[Madrid study] — https://journals.lww.com/pidj/fulltext/9900/effectiveness_and_safety_of_covid_19_mrna_vaccines.1563.aspx
[hospitalizations in injected people must be reduced by 70% (minimum acceptable)] — https://www.who.int/tools/target-product-profile-database/item/tpp--for-covid-19-vaccines
[Taiwan study] — Su WJ, Liu YL, Chang CH, Lin YC, Huang WI, Wu LC, Chen SF, Lin YS, Hsieh YL, Yang CA, Lin CH, Chan KA, Lee PI, Chuang JH, Yang CH. Risk of myocarditis and pericarditis following coronavirus disease 2019 messenger RNA Vaccination-A nationwide study. J Microbiol Immunol Infect. 2023 Jun;56(3):558-565. doi: 10.1016/j.jmii.2023.01.016. Epub 2023 Feb 8. PMID: 36804307; PMCID: PMC9907782. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36804307/
[USA presentation at CDC] — https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/118585/cdc_118585_DS1.pdf
[Hong Kong study] — Chua GT, Kwan MYW, Chui CSL, Smith RD, Cheung ECL, Ma T, Leung MTY, Tsao SSL, Kan E, Ng WKC, Chan VCM, Tai SM, Yu TC, Lee KP, Wong JSC, Lin YK, Shek CC, Leung ASY, Chow CK, Li KW, Ma J, Fung WY, Lee D, Ng MY, Wong WHS, Tsang HW, Kwok J, Leung D, Chung KL, Chow CB, Chan GCF, Leung WH, To KKW, Yuen KY, Lau YL, Wong ICK, Ip P. Epidemiology of Acute Myocarditis/Pericarditis in Hong Kong Adolescents Following Comirnaty Vaccination. Clin Infect Dis. 2022 Sep 10;75(4):673-681. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciab989. PMID: 34849657; PMCID: PMC8767823. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34849657/