Idea for Sec. Kennedy at HHS

Post #1318

As John Leake reported, RFK Jr. was recently on the Tucker Carlson show and he emphasized how his own personal opinion about things is irrelevant and that what America needs is great science that is up to the task regarding answering the really big questions — rather than captured science which does the bidding of drug firms.

Here’s an idea. HHS currently has access to over 15 million electronic health records (EHR) and can leverage that data in order to create a lens that is focused properly enough where it will reveal the detail of whether a vaccine is harmful. Using the latest year of data for each person as a baseline, persons could then be watched for 10 weeks:

The personal risk for things will be collected in the full year prior to a dose (all data is already available electronically). Then, people will be watched for 70 days post-dose. This type of analysis would have immediately caught things like “myocarditis.” Because each person serves as their own control, bias and confounding is minimal.

The expected rate of symptoms/disease comes from the year prior “for that particular person.” The observed events over the 10 weeks following the dose get compared to what is expected “for that particular person.” CDC was already using a similar system for COVID, but it was using one that is fatally-flawed, by only watching after the doses:

[click to enlarge]

Total follow-up was 6 weeks but only the first 3 weeks were used for obtaining rates of adverse events, and the last 3 weeks were what might be called a “dirty comparator” — because some residual effects will still be coming in from the COVID shots during those weeks, diluting the signal which might have come out from the first 3 weeks.

CDC has thought it useful to go out by at least 70 days (10 weeks) post-dose in order to collect data on adverse events:

So everything suggested above has already been in use, but never in such a revealing way as is suggested (full-year personal baseline prior to a dose; 10 weeks follow-up). Here is an example of use of the 70-day follow-up — as a “proof-of-concept” — but without the benefit of personal electronic health records:

Flu doses for 2016-17, 2017-18, and 2018-19 seasons

That works out to 471.9 million doses over those last 3 flu seasons (145.9+155.3+170.7). Now let’s get the VAERS reports of death with onset by Day 70 for adults from age 20 to age 84 (NOTE: while this artificially deflates reporting rates, because it presumes all doses went just to this age band, it should not affect head-to-head comparisons):

With 41 reports of death from 471.9 million doses, that works out to a reporting rate of 0.09 fatal adverse event reports by Day 70 for every million doses. Now let’s compare that to Moderna. Here are the doses by the end of January 2021:

At just 14.25 million doses by 31 Jan 2021, the Moderna shot count pales in comparison to the 472 million flu shots given out over 3 consecutive flu seasons. But how do the deaths compare?:

With 471 reports of death by Day 70, and 14.25 million doses, the reporting rate for fatality with Moderna was 33 reports of death by Day 70 for every million doses — a value that is 367x higher than the reporting rate for flu shots. If we go back in time until we have accrued 471 reports of death by Day 70 from flu shots, this results:

Just up to that first full month of COVID shots (approximately 45 days into the rollout), there were already more reports of death by Day 70 among those under age 85 — from just one brand of the shots (Moderna) — than were found in the last 13 years of flu shots, combined. Just 45 days of Moderna was “worth” 13 years of flu shots in harm.

Reference

[“concurrent comparator method” already in use by CDC] — Gee J, Shimabukuro TT, Su JR, Shay D, Ryan M, Basavaraju SV, Broder KR, Clark M, Buddy Creech C, Cunningham F, Goddard K, Guy H, Edwards KM, Forshee R, Hamburger T, Hause AM, Klein NP, Kracalik I, Lamer C, Loran DA, McNeil MM, Montgomery J, Moro P, Myers TR, Olson C, Oster ME, Sharma AJ, Schupbach R, Weintraub E, Whitehead B, Anderson S. Overview of U.S. COVID-19 vaccine safety surveillance systems. Vaccine. 2024 Sep 17;42 Suppl 3:125748. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.02.065. Epub 2024 Apr 16. PMID: 38631952. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X2400224X?via%3Dihub

[70-day risk window already in use by CDC] — https://www.cdc.gov/acip/downloads/slides-2025-06-25-26/04-Meyer-COVID-508.pdf

[yearly uptake of flu shots] — CDC. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/hcp/vaccine-supply/vaccine-supply-historical.html

[uptake of COVID shots] — OurWorldInData. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

[MedAlerts VAERS searching tool] — MedAlerts. https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/index.php