… and pre-Alpha (Wuhan-1 strain) COVID ran rampant through the air ducts of the ship, and no one self-isolated, even after they took ill, and no one took early treatment, then, just like in NYC, the pandemic would be over by Day 180 — but a world total of 9 million people would have died:
[click to enlarge]
Model parameters for cells A5, B5, and D5 were taken from a calibration study where they calibrated their model to the actual COVID outbreak in Nigeria, obtaining a really good fit of the model to reality.
The parameter in cell C5, the pre-Alpha COVID IFR, was taken from pooling infection and death data from Santa Clara County and from UK Tech Briefing #5.
When no helpful measures are employed, and when everyone in the world shares the same air ventilation system (a cruise ship characteristic) — so that the world is viewed as an isolated, closed community — then the death curve at right tops out at just above 9 million world deaths.
But The Economist estimates that actual excess death is 3 times this “worst-case” model estimate of what COVID could have caused on Earth:
This means that something besides COVID has caused (27 - 9 =) 18 million premature deaths in the world. This estimate is commensurate with a report posted by Dr. Robert Malone recently.
Reference
[source for the SEIR model] — Western Kentucky University. https://www.wku.edu/da/covid-19-research/excel_sir_model.php
[Santa Clara data] — Covid-19 Fatality Rate Between 0.1 and 0.3%, Gangelt and Santa Clara Combined. https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202007.0155/v1
[As of 19 Jan 2021, from 65,000 pre-Alpha COVID infections, there were 65 total deaths by Day 28 (corrected using “Day 28 deaths” as 89% of all deaths, by using upper bound estimates from Linton et. al.)] — Page 3. Epidemiological findings. UK Technical Briefing #5. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
[“Time-to-death” model for COVID; using the 95% UB of both the mean and SD of the lognormal model that fit the actual deaths best] — Linton NM, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, et al. Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2020 Feb;9(2). DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020538. PMID: 32079150; PMCID: PMC7074197. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7074197/
[SEIR model parameters calibrated to the reality on the ground in Nigeria] — Parameters Estimation of COVID-19 SEIR Model. Asian Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics Volume 5, Issue 1, Page 229-241, 2023; Article no.AJPAM.1263. https://globalpresshub.com/index.php/AJPAM/article/view/1828/1591
Simulations of phenomena with unknown principles, laws, and theorems are always wrong, even if mathematics is used.
Brilliant. Thanks again.