Ladera Ranch Cancer Cluster

Post #1713

The Defender reported on a cancer cluster among adolescents in Ladera Ranch, California. It involves the rare cancer, Ewing sarcoma, which has a conservative yearly incidence rate of 2 cases per million adolescent-years (1.5 cited below). According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are 9,212 non-adults (i.e., children and adolescents) there.

Over a time window of 3.5 years (32,242 adolescent-years), there were 6 cases. If we “start the clock” at the point when the first kid got it, and then check for the probability of 5 more getting it in 32,242 adolescent-years of observation time, we conclude that there is a special cause of these cancers:

The first line above is the chance that 4 or less cases of Ewing sarcoma would be seen in Ladera Ranch over 3.5 years. The third line shows the chance of 5 or more cases was 1 in 117,876,155 — or about 1 in 118 million. The evidence suggests that there is a special cause of the Ewing sarcoma (e.g., pesticides, EMFs, mold, heavy metals, etc.).

The common causes of variation in rates of Ewing sarcoma are not enough to explain 6 adolescent cases in 3.5 years of observation time.

Reference

[35.2% of the 26,170 people in Ladera Ranch are non-adults] — https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/laderaranchcdpcalifornia/PST045225

[the “adolescent-and-young-adult” (AYA) rate for Ewing sarcoma is 1.5 per MPY] — https://www.scirp.org/pdf/jbm_2153327.pdf