In this prior report on Japan, a mass casualty event was defined as being a year of death that sits above the 99% upper bound of a Prediction Interval. Here is similar analysis on South Korea, which peaked in COVID shot uptake even slightly later than did Japan:
This late peak in COVID shot uptake is related to an 11% increase in death in 2023:
That 2023 death is beyond the upper bound of a 99% Prediction Interval, and more than 5 standard deviations above the mean of the first 6 years in the graph.