Mean Age of Excess Death, Part 2

New Estimates and New Data

In this prior Substack, I used a reference US population from 2009 to estimate the mean age of an excess death prior to COVID jabs (through Oct 2020) and also in 2021, after COVID jabs had rolled out.

In this new installment, I update the previous estimates using 2019 as the reference US population, and extend the analysis to 2022. The updated mean age of excess death in the pre-jab era is 72.5, found in the blue box in column S of this following spreadsheet:

[click to enlarge]

The imputed annual excess death in the pre-jab era, using age-specific death rates up to Oct 2020, was 533,000 excess deaths (orange cell in column Q). The updated mean age of excess death for 2021 was 60.7, slightly higher than the original estimate of 59.0.

Interestingly, compared to 2021, even though hundreds more excess deaths were found in 2022 among those below age 15 (after COVID jabs had been approved for those under age 15), the mean age of excess death rose back up again to its original level (72.9).

If you just focused on mean age of excess death for each year, then you’d miss those hundreds of children who experienced a premature death in 2022. Overall, excess deaths remained above 400,000 for 2022 — still over 90% as high as in 2021.

Because all of 2022 was dominated by the “low-virulence” Omicron variant (which is not even half as lethal as common flu), evidence suggests that COVID jabs lead to higher death, especially among the young.

Reference

[age-specific excess death before the rollout of COVID jabs] — Rossen LM, Branum AM, Ahmad FB, Sutton P, Anderson RN. Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity — United States, January 26–October 3, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020;69:1522–1527. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6942e2

[US reference population, as well as age-specific death rates from 2013-2019; utilized as a 7-year baseline] — CDC. National Vital Statistics Reports. Volume 70, Number 8. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr70/nvsr70-08-508.pdf

[age-specific death rates for 2020 and 2021] — Ahmad FB, Cisewski JA, Anderson RN. Provisional Mortality Data — United States, 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022;71:597-600. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7117e1

[age-specific death rates for 2022] — Ahmad FB, Cisewski JA, Xu J, Anderson RN. Provisional Mortality Data — United States, 2022. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023;72:488–492. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7218a3