When looking at just those U.S. adults of the age of 42, you find a crazy-high excess death rate in 2021, at almost 55% above the mean death rate for that age during 2015-2019:
The orange/red line indicates a cut-off that is 3 standard deviations above the mean death rate for that age. In process evaluations, values beyond 3 standard deviations from the mean are considered to demonstrate a special cause in effect, because common-cause variation cannot explain values beyond that threshold:
In the baseline years of 2015-2019, there were two severe flu seasons (2014/15 and 2017/18), but notice how it is that — among 42 year-olds — even severe flu seasons are not capable of causing a 3-sigma violation in death rates. This is germane because — for 42 year-olds — the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID is near that of the flu IFR:
[click to enlarge]
The median flu IFR for those in the age 18-49 age band was 0.014%, while the median COVID IFR prior to rollout of COVID shots — found in column K, rows 9 to 11 — was 0.002% for age 20-29, 0.011% for age 30-39, and 0.035% for age 40-49. Those of age 42 would be found to have a COVID IFR very near the median flu IFR for their age.
If flu cannot cause a 3-sigma violation in age-specific death rates — and if COVID among 42 year-olds has a similar IFR to influenza among 42 year-olds — then how does one explain the excess death of 2021, besides chalking it up to medical malpractice?
Death Rate at Age 42:
Reference
[COVID IFR by age band prior to the rollout of COVID shots] — Pezzullo AM, Axfors C, Contopoulos-Ioannidis DG, Apostolatos A, Ioannidis JPA. Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly population. Environ Res. 2023 Jan 1;216(Pt 3):114655. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114655. Epub 2022 Oct 28. PMID: 36341800; PMCID: PMC9613797. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9613797/
Dead Man Talking has reported on 50 yr old deaths with similar increases, UK.