"Moderna Myocarditis" vs. Historic Rates

Post #566

Edit: an error has been corrected. The true serious Adverse Event Report (AER) rate from 324,734 AER’s for Moderna, when 568,668,391 doses had been given, is 571 per million (59 times typical)

Rates for serious adverse event reports are typically about 9.6 serious adverse events reported per million doses. But for Moderna, the serious adverse event reporting rate was 59 times higher than that baseline rate:

If the death rate from all-ages myocarditis (1.8%) were applied to the excess myocarditis per million doses for men of age 18-24, it would be 9.7 myocarditis deaths per million doses (even higher than the baseline rate for all serious adverse events).

The yearly excess myocarditis cases, even though they are just one type of serious adverse event, are 38 times higher than the baseline rate for all serious adverse events.

Reference

[typical serious adverse event reporting rate is 9.6 per million net doses distributed] — CDC. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5201a1.htm

[1976 swine flu shot got pulled with just 0.59 excess severe GBS cases per 100,000 (5.9 per million) and 0.92 total excess GBS cases per 100,000 (9.2 per million)] — Sejvar, J.J., Pfeifer, D. & Schonberger, L.B. Guillain-Barré Syndrome Following Influenza Vaccination: Causal or Coincidental?. Curr Infect Dis Rep 13, 387–398 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11908-011-0194-8

[Moderna’s 324,734 serious adverse event reports from 568,668,391 doses is a reporting rate 59 times the typical rate of 9.6 per M] — Straus W, Urdaneta V, Esposito DB, Mansi JA, Sanz Rodriguez C, Burton P, Vega JM. Analysis of Myocarditis Among 252 Million mRNA-1273 Recipients Worldwide. Clin Infect Dis. 2023 Feb 8;76(3):e544-e552. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciac446. PMID: 35666513; PMCID: PMC9384217. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9384217/