More on Reporting Rate for "blood clots"

Post #1194

In this post, I looked at 10 lots of Moderna shots and 8 years of flu shots, finding that the average ratio of reporting rates for blood clots had risk 900x higher for Moderna. Here is a larger sample of both Moderna and flu shots in order to see by how far the estimate can be brought down. Here are the 15 Moderna lots included (last 15 rows):

And here is the 10-season time-window from which the flu shot reports were taken from:

And here are the calculations performed to see what the minimum estimate was with the expanded data set:

[click to enlarge]

In column B you will note that the total number of adverse event reports for embolism/thrombosis are almost always higher than the first screenshot up top shows. This is due to variation in recorded lot names, and is explained in the original report. Column C shows the Moderna lot sizes, summing up to 19.4 million doses.

Cell D21 is selected, so that the formula for deriving it — all reports divided by all doses — shows up at top. The same thing was done in cell K28 for flu shots. The worst ratio of Moderna reporting rate to flu shot reporting rate is in cell P21 — a past flu season which only involved just one single report of embolism/thrombosis.

But importantly, P24 shows the lowest ratio of Moderna-to-flu-shots: 420x. This means that these Moderna shots came with at least 420 times the risk of reports of embolism/thrombosis — when compared to flu shots. Evidence suggests that, regarding blood clots, Moderna shots are at least 400 times worse than flu shots.

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Individual Moderna lot reporting rate compared to average flu shot rate:

Individual flu season reporting rate compared to average Moderna rate:

*Note how the lowest bar is for flu season 2017/18, but that it is still over 400x — meaning that the average Moderna reporting rate was over 400 times higher than the worst flu shot reporting rate of these 10 seasons.