Myocarditis Safety Signal over 3 times the Swine Flu vaccine safety signal from 1976
Comparing COVID jabs to a vaccine program which got shut down
1976 Swine Flu Vaccine Program
Back in 1976, the swine flu vaccine program was shut down, after it was discovered that the rate of Gullian Barre Syndrome (GBS) in vaccinees was four times the baseline rate.
The baseline incidence rate of GBS is about 11 cases per million person-years.
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This means that vaccinees back then were getting about 44 cases per million person-years, or an excess of +33 cases for every million person-years of follow-up.
That level of excess GBS got that vaccine program shut down.
COVID jab program
For young males of age 15, the expected number of myocarditis cases per million person-weeks of follow-up is 3.5 cases per million person-weeks of follow-up.
But slide #25 of a CDC presentation on myocarditis risk after COVID jabs reveals that, for male kids of age 12-15, second-dose COVID jabs led to a one-week myocarditis incidence rate of 152.5 cases per million person-weeks, an excess of +149 cases per million.
The lowest incidence rate that was consistent with the evidence, the 95% lower bound, was 103.6 cases per million person-weeks, resulting in a best-case scenario of +100.1 excess cases per million — over 3 times the safety signal that got the swine flu vaccine shut down.
About 1.4% of children hospitalized with myocarditis die.
Consistency in pharmacovigilance would have led to a shut down of the COVID jab program, at least for all children, because even a safety signal that was only one third as strong got the Swine Flu vaccine program shut down.
Critics and detractors may state that GBS is more severe than myocarditis, but a rejoinder to that is GBS is more obviously-detrimental, because of hampering activities of daily living by so much — whereas myocarditis (along with scarring of the heart) is more likely to be perniciously detrimental, and may end up shortening lives by several years on average.
Just because GBS is more obvious in its immediate effects does not necessarily mean that the long-run outcome is worse than a given case of myocarditis.
Reference
Swine Flu Chronology January 1976—March 1977. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK219595/
[median GBS incidence is 11 cases per million person-years (MPY)] — Sejvar JJ, Baughman AL, Wise M, Morgan OW. Population incidence of Guillain-Barré syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Neuroepidemiology. 2011;36(2):123-33. doi: 10.1159/000324710. Epub 2011 Mar 21. PMID: 21422765; PMCID: PMC5703046. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5703046/
CDC Presentation on Myocarditis Risk. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2022-06-22-23/03-covid-shimabukuro-508.pdf
[baseline 181 myocarditis cases per million person-years (MPY) in age 15 males; 3.5 myocarditis cases per million person-weeks (MPW); 1.4% of hospitalized cases died] — Arola A, Pikkarainen E, Sipilä JO, Pykäri J, Rautava P, Kytö V. Occurrence and Features of Childhood Myocarditis: A Nationwide Study in Finland. J Am Heart Assoc. 2017 Nov 18;6(11):e005306. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.116.005306. PMID: 29151030; PMCID: PMC5721735. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5721735/