New Zealand Births minus Deaths

Post #596

In New Zealand, after subtracting deaths from births, you get what is referred to as a “natural increase” in the population, to be differentiated from an increase that can come from net migration into New Zealand.

However, the quarterly natural increase is expected to be around +7,000 per quarter, but in the third quarter of 2022 (labelled as “30 Sep 2022” in the NZ data), it fell to 6 standard deviations below the mean — indicating a safety signal.

Evidence suggests that something was killing off New Zealanders in the middle of 2022 — unless the birth rate dropped dramatically, which would then suggest that something was adversely affecting birth rates.

Here is the current yearly birth and death rate in New Zealand:

The difference of the rates is +5.8 per 1,000 so, with 5 million people, the expected yearly “natural increase” (births - deaths) would be +29,000 — or about +7,250 per quarter.

Reference

[source of change in NZ population] — Government of New Zealand. https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/national-population-estimates-at-30-june-2023/

[CIA’s data on New Zealand] — Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/new-zealand/