Over 5% Yearly Decline in Fertility

Post #1285

NOTE: The prior report on this topic is here.

---

There are more than 9 nations of the world where recent fertility has been falling so fast that it is falling at a yearly rate of over 5% per year. But because of earlier trends, I chose 9 nations that are falling that fast, but only recently so. The reason for this is to explore if COVID shots are behind the abrupt change from previous trend:

This measure of fertility rate has been corrected for the survival of the child, so that it cannot be the case that a live baby is born but then dies a year or two later. Because of that, it is more of a measure of the truth of whether a population could be sustained. At far right, you can see a sizeable drop in fertility after 2021 (here it is up close):

When the previous 5 years are used as a baseline, then you can compute a standard score for each year after 2021. Because it is always the case that values sitting 5 or more standard deviations from the mean are significant (Chebychev’s theorem), those Z scores were shaded orange below:

Even by 2022, Denmark and Estonia had experienced a significant drop in fertility. But the worst place is Belgium in 2023, with a fertility rate that was 9 standard deviations below the mean of the baseline fertility rate computed from the 5 prior years of 2017-2021. Iceland and the Netherlands approached the threshold (yellow).

This evidence suggests that there is a special cause for the steep drop in fertility after 2021, and the primary suspect for that would be the experimental COVID shots, which were put into the arms of the majority of these populations during 2021.

Reference

[fertility rates corrected for survival] — https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/effective-fertility-rate-children-per-woman-who-are-expected-to-survive-until-childbearing-age