Over Twice the Excess Death after Vaccines than Before
Updated analysis of large sample of 6 billion humans
I posted crude analysis on rates of excess deaths before and after vaccines in the 29 nations with population of 50 million or more (n ~ 6 billion people total). But the timeline utilized isn’t fully justified by the data on the ground.
For instance, I included the month of January 2020 — when practically no one died of COVID-19. I also used a 31 Dec 2020 cutoff date for the unvaccinated — even though the vaccine rollouts differed by nation.
This report corrects earlier imperfections like that, and adds a measure for weighted change in excess death — the change in excess death that should be projected after vaccines roll out, if you sincerely base your projections on the data on the ground.
While all start dates have shifted from 1 Jan 2020 to 27 Jan 2021, and all final end dates are moved to 31 Jan 2022 — i.e., two full years of data, divided in time by a “vaccine rollout” — the measure utilized is the average of Daily Excess Death per Million population (DEDpM).
Excess death is itself a measure which already incorporates (corrects for) seasonal variation, allowing for an apples-to-apples comparison, even if the vaccinated time period contains more winter months than the unvaccinated time period.
As you can see in the graph below, Russia and China have an asterisk on them, because in both nations, there was an unofficial vaccine rollout before October of 2020, even though they did not report their official rollout until early December.
In half of these most-populous nations of planet Earth, excess death rates more than doubled after vaccines rolled out, indicating that the vaccine itself is a little bit more than twice as dangerous as the original disease.
The population-weighted average daily excess death per million before vaccines was 2.02 DEDpM.
The population-weighted increase in DEDpM after the vaccines rolled out was a DEDpM increase of +2.47 DEDpM — an increase alone which was greater than all of the excess death that COVID itself had been causing prior to vaccines.
I used the Excess Death data from The Economist, by way of the OWID website cited below.
Because excess deaths were almost universally higher after vaccines for these 6 billion people, this is a clear and unmistakable safety signal.
Reference
To obtain dates for vaccine rollouts, see: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-56237778
Estimated cumulative excess deaths during COVID. OWID. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid