Peter Marks' Signal Slow-walk (Pt 2)

Post #1288

The first part of this analysis is here.

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When looking for a Safety Signal from COVID shots, one of the age groups that was data-mined in the VAERS database was the age group of 16-17. But Peter Marks is on record questioning whether there was a bona fide Safety Signal for myopericarditis at the end of May (see link above for details). Here are all reports for age 16-17 males:

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These counts are monthly, and we need the reports specific to myocarditis and pericarditis, so that we can find out what proportion they comprise of the total of all adverse event reports submitted to VAERS. Here are those specific reports:

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These again are monthly so that we can track exactly when a Safety Signal was thrown. To determine the proportion of all reports made up of myopericarditis that throws the signal, we use the baseline proportion of all reports that myopericarditis has represented historically. Here are all reports for this group historically:

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That’s 3,202 over the prior dozen years. Now let’s get the myopericarditis reports so that we can form the baseline proportion of all reports made up by myopericarditis reports:

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Alright, with 8 total myopericarditis reports out of 3,202 total adverse event reports, we can form an expected proportion of the total — which turns out to be approximately a quarter-percent, or 0.25% of all reports being comprised of myopericarditis reports. Then we form the Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR):

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NOTE: the formula for computing the standard error of the natural log of the PRR (sitting in cell G3) shows up at top

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As you can see in cell D6, by April 2021, a Safety Signal was thrown for myopericarditis in age 16-17 males, giving a PRR of 3.8. The 90% lower bound on it was 1.84. But it gets worse. In May 2021, the PRR shot up to 25.88, indicating that myopericarditis reports were 26 times their historically-expected share of all reports.

The lower bound (5th percentile value) was still 14.05, indicating that myopericarditis reports were at least 14x their expected share of all reports for this group — which is a very strong Safety Signal. Even the cumulative analysis — using all reports from Dec 2020 forward — had a PRR of 9.86 with a lower bound of 5.38.

Because of such strong data by May 2021, Peter Marks should not have been slow-walking or waffling over whether there was a Safety Signal or not. There was one for this group, and it was very strong. The evidence suggests that there was an attempt, on 27 May 2021, to cover-up danger from the experimental COVID shots

Reference

[online search tool for VAERS] — https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/index.php