Post-Jab ICU rates twice the 2020 rate?
Post #511
Update: Further research revealed that the estimate of relative ICU burden is worse than is given below, as only 6% to 25% of severe COVID cases end up in ICU. A follow-up report now links back to this one.
When the original phase III trial of COVID jabs got published on 10 Dec 2020, there were 9 severe cases of COVID in 4,006 person-years of observation in the placebo group — indicating that COVID alone — without COVID jabs — could cause 2.25 severe cases per 1,000 person-years.
If that rate is put into “severe cases per million person-weeks,” then that comes to a weekly rate of 43.2 severe COVID cases per million.
But not all severe cases end up being treated in ICU. If you assume that only 70% of them do, then the adjusted weekly rate becomes 30.2 per million, as represented by the bold yellow line in this graph:
NOTE: If it assumed that only 60% of severe COVID cases go to ICU, then the yellow line would drop down to 25.9 ICU admissions per million — making these post-jab rates appear even worse than what is shown above (and two nations would then be estimated to have triple the ICU rate that was found in 2020).
Disturbingly, after COVID jabs rolled out, Chile, Czechia, and Slovenia had ICU admission rates that rose to twice the level of ICU admissions which COVID, itself, could cause, as estimated by the rate in the original phase III trial placebo group.
All 8 nations showing in this graph had exceeded the original placebo group rate at least once after the COVID jabs rolled out. Evidence suggests that COVID jabs led to higher ICU admission rates than COVID, itself, could cause (negative efficacy).
Reference
[weekly ICU admissions per million] — OWID. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations
[original rate of severe COVID is 2.25 per 1,000 person-years, using the largest-ever sample] — Polack FP, Thomas SJ, Kitchin N, Absalon J, Gurtman A, Lockhart S, Perez JL, Pérez Marc G, Moreira ED, Zerbini C, Bailey R, Swanson KA, Roychoudhury S, Koury K, Li P, Kalina WV, Cooper D, Frenck RW Jr, Hammitt LL, Türeci Ö, Nell H, Schaefer A, Ünal S, Tresnan DB, Mather S, Dormitzer PR, Şahin U, Jansen KU, Gruber WC; C4591001 Clinical Trial Group. Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine. N Engl J Med. 2020 Dec 31;383(27):2603-2615. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2034577. Epub 2020 Dec 10. PMID: 33301246; PMCID: PMC7745181. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7745181/