Post-jab Myo/Pericarditis (the 'Hotez narrative')
Peter Hotez is one of the champions of COVID shots and together with two other authors, he published a report on myo/pericarditis in the journal, Circulation, in July of 2021. Here is a quote:
According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, myocarditis/pericarditis rates are ≈12.6 cases per million doses of second-dose mRNA vaccine among individuals 12 to 39 years of age.
That quote assumes a 21-day risk window, and it makes it seem like there is not a big problem of myocarditis and pericarditis post-COVID-shot. Evidence from 4 Nordic nations combined with evidence from South Korea indicate that, of those who got myocarditis after a COVID shot, 1.1% were dead by Day 90.
But applying the 1.1% death rate to 12.6 cases per million doses leads to only 0.1 myocarditis death reports per million doses. Historic VAERS data indicate that, from all causes combined (and for all vaccines combined), there’ll be an expected total of 1.1 death reports per million doses.
But the “Hotez narrative” is presented in a way that hides details, such as the big elevation of risk in young males. Here is how the Hotez narrative compares side-by-side with the risk that young males face from COVID shots:
The middle bar is the “Hotez narrative” and it is only just over twice the highest expected baseline value, the height of the bar that sits just to the left of the middle. In 21 days of follow-up, only as much as 5.9 reports per million would ever be expected from those under 40.
That high estimate of the baseline reporting rate even applies to the young males depicted in the two tall bars on the right. Any height above the high baseline is “excess.” That baseline comes from the same CDC report that Hotez et al. cites. Here is where he got his magic number:
And here is where I got all of the low baselines and all of the high baselines from both sexes and all ages from 12 to 39:
The highest-ever expected rate comes from using the “12” for males of age 12-17, and when using it, you get a rate of ( 12/2.039871= ) 5.9 reports per million over the course of 21 days. All other expected rates are below that top rate.
For males up to age 19, there are 126 to 145 excess myocarditis reports per million second doses. Applying the 1.1% death rate to those reveals 1.3 to 1.5 myocarditis-associated deaths per million doses.
Note how that death rate for just myocarditis is already higher than the death rate from all possible causes of death combined in the historic VAERS data. But the estimate from just the first week post-COVID-shot for teenage males in Hong Kong is worse than anything reported so far:
*The Hotez narrative has been left alone, still representing the full accumulation of 21 days of reports, while all other bars are set for a 7-day risk window. In just the first 7 days, reports in the Nordics and in Hong Kong swamped the 21-day expectation.
In the first week after getting a COVID shot, there were 311 reports of myocarditis per million in male teens in Hong Kong. That works out to 3.5 myocarditis-associated deaths for every million teen males who took COVID shots.
And that’s just death by one single cause.
But the COVID death rate for teenagers never even reached one-in-a-million**. This is strong evidence of a negative Benefit-Harm scenario. A halt on COVID shots is warranted by the evidence.
**The higher annual COVID attack rate from the two big Phase 3 trials before unblinding was 11% annualized. With an infection fatality risk for teenagers of 3 deaths per million infections, then the annual COVID death risk for teenagers was 1 in 3 million.
For teenagers, you were roughly 3 times more likely to be hit by lightning than to die of COVID.
Given how the Hong Kong estimate — even assuming 100% “vaccine effectiveness” at preventing death — still comes out with COVID shots producing 10.5 deaths for every single life saved in teenage males (estimate for Nordic and Israel is ~5 teen males killed per life saved), it is disturbing that that article by Hotez had concluded this:
Despite rare cases of myocarditis, the benefit-risk assessment for COVID-19 vaccination shows a favorable balance for all age and sex groups; therefore, COVID-19 vaccination is recommended for everyone ≥12 years of age.
To be charitable, much of the evidence above came after the article in Circulation was published, but it is still disturbing how they could turn out to be so demonstrably wrong about the net effect of COVID shots in young males.