In the film, Cast Away (2000), the protagonist, Chuck Noland (played by Tom Hanks), gets stranded on an island. He begins that experience with very little in the way of food or shelter, but after some time on the island, he has more food and shelter. This isn’t by accident or by coincidence — any human being would have more … after time.
By utilizing critical thinking and becoming productive, Chuck Noland gets “better off” over time, and it is expected that when humans are left to their own devices, that they will consistently and persistently get “better off” over time. Even mortality rates can get better off over time. If you don’t believe me, then look at this graph:
The 2009 death rate for those of age 62 was only 79% as high as it had been 10 years prior. In just 10 years, it came down by 21% from the 1999 baseline death rate. The projected death rate moving forward in time won’t be linear, but will instead have exponential decay to it (later improvements aren’t ever as big as early improvements).
While the age-62 death rate in 2009 was 996.9 per 100,000 — the prior trend indicates that it would have been expected to be below 900 per 100,000 by 2016, as long as health improvements continued at the pace they had been taking from 1999-2009.
NOTE: The age for early retirement is 62, though if you retire that early, you get about 30% less from Social Security.
But after 2009 (once the Affordable Care Act passed in March 2010), those at age 62 have been having death rates higher than expected. Here are the age-62 death rates from 2018-2022 (orange):
The 2021 rate erased over 22 years of progress in the age-62 death rate, and even the 2022 rate took progress back by 19 years (the 2004 death rate, 18 years prior, was lower than the 2022 death rate). The evidence suggests that the Affordable Care Act increased government control over healthcare, which led to increased death rates.
When the government took even more control over healthcare (COVID era), then death rates increased even higher. This suggests that, the more control the government has over healthcare, the higher the death rates.