Risk-Benefit Vaccine Comparison
Comparison of risks and benefits of COVID vaccines to typical vaccines
Dr. Robert Malone recently reported on the Lancet study which evaluated the first 6 months of death reports for the mRNA vaccines. After vetting, they were left with 4471 deaths reported by the time that there had been 298.792852 million doses administered.
That’s 15.0 deaths reported per million doses.
Back in 2003, the CDC reported that for 11 years, there had been 1.903 billion net doses (‘distributed’ minus ‘returned’) of vaccines in general, and there had been 2142 deaths reported to the VAERS system.
That’s 1.1 deaths reported per million doses.
Here is a breakdown of the CDC VAERS data for typical vaccines:
If COVID vaccines are (15.0/1.1=) 13.6 times more dangerous to take into your body than typical vaccines, then it’d be really important to find out if COVID is 13.6 times more dangerous than typical diseases, such as flu.
The case fatality rate (CFR) of a bad season of flu (such as the 2014/15 season) is 0.17%, due to there being 30,165,452 symptomatic cases when there were 51,376 deaths — as shown in this screenshot of the CDC page for that season:
But only 84% of flu infections are symptomatic (16% remain asymptomatic) so, in order to find the true “lethality” of a flu infection — or what is known as the infection fatality rate (IFR) — you have to adjust the case fatality rate appropriately.
This results in an IFR of 0.14% for a severe season of flu.
A Benchmark for Comparison
That provides a baseline or a benchmark against which we can compare COVID lethality — to check to see if it is at least 13 times higher than that, in order to justify the more-than-13-fold extra risk that comes with COVID vaccines (compared to typical vaccines).
To make sure that COVID vaccines aren’t “too dangerous” to use for COVID, we’d need evidence that COVID is at least 13 times worse than flu (because COVID vaccines are over 13 times more dangerous than typical vaccines).
The minimum IFR that is 13 times higher than 0.14% is (13*0.14=) 1.82%.
A Robust Method of Estimation
One of the most robust methods for estimation is a Bayesian Credible Interval. It can be more useful than a confidence interval because it leads directly to a probability interpretation.
The values inside of a 95% Credible Interval have a probability of 95% of containing the true, underlying value you are trying to estimate. The limits of plausibility may stretch even higher though, up to 99%. For instance, a 99% probability is used by some state governments in order to determine paternity in paternity cases.
Using data from the UK (Technical Briefing #5), I used the statistics software called “R” to compute a Bayesian credible interval around the IFR of COVID variants which circulated after the Alpha variant — which is the last known COVID variant to still be approximately as lethal as the original Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2.
As you can see in the image above, I created 40 million random IFR values in order to see which ones could possibly lead to the results found in the UK. The 99% credible interval is shown at right in the frequency histogram of IFR values, represented by vertical dashed lines.
Those vertical lines represent the limits of plausibility on a COVID IFR, based on there being only 65 deaths discovered in the UK when they followed about 65,000 COVID-positive patients for 28 days through time.*
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*NOTE: These were the non-Alpha variant cases. Their test for Alpha variant in that report was S-gene target failure, SGTF, as a marker for Alpha variant [SGTF=Alpha], and they refer to Alpha cases as SGTF cases in the report.
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Not only was it not true that non-Alpha variant COVID is at least 13 times worse than flu, but it wasn’t even plausible for non-Alpha variant COVID to even be ANY worse than the severe season of flu in 2014/15.
If COVID isn’t 13 times worse than flu — and not even ANY worse than “severe” flu — but COVID vaccines are 13 times more dangerous to take into your body than typical vaccines, then why would we continue to use them?
It would appear to violate the Hippocratic Oath:
First, do no harm.
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Reference
[Lancet study showing 4471 reported deaths for 298.8 million vaccine doses (15 deaths/M doses)] — Available: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00054-8/fulltext#%20
[1.1 VAERS-reported deaths per million general vaccine doses administered] — CDC. MMWR Report. Available: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5201a1.htm
[Past seasons CDC reports of flu infections and flu deaths] — Available: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
[Fraction of flu infections with symptoms] — Leung NH, Xu C, Ip DK, Cowling BJ. Review Article: The Fraction of Influenza Virus Infections That Are Asymptomatic: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Epidemiology. 2015 Nov;26(6):862-72. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000340. PMID: 26133025; PMCID: PMC4586318. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4586318/
[non-Alpha variants: Only 65 recorded deaths from about 65,000 COVID-positives] — UK Technical Briefing #5. From: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/959426/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_5.pdf