Severe Flu vs. Median COVID (2020 & 2021)

Post #522

In this prior post, the median excess death per million in 2020 was estimated using data from The Economist. But a second set of data on excess death comes from these 3 sources: Human Mortality Database (2023); World Mortality Dataset (2023); Karlinsky and Kobak (2021).

Using 67 regions which reported the accumulation of excess death per million on 31 Dec 2020 and also again on 31 Dec 2021, the yearly excess deaths per million (YEDPM) can be compared to that of severe flu in The Netherlands back in 2017/18:

Error in graph: the sample size in 2020 was 72, not 67. The 5 regions not reporting on 31 Dec 2021 were Algeria, Belarus, Gibraltar, Jamaica, and Panama.

At left is the excess death rate from severe flu, in the middle is the median excess death rate for 2020 (when no COVID jab was available), at right is the median excess death rate after COVID jabs rolled out.

Evidence suggests that COVID wasn’t worse than severe flu, but that the COVID jabs led to such high excess death that it was more than twice as bad as severe flu.

Reference

[accumulation of excess deaths per million] — OWID. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-deaths-per-million-covid

[9373 excess deaths in 2017/18 when population was 17.18 million = 546 per million] — van Asten L, Harmsen CN, Stoeldraijer L, Klinkenberg D, Teirlinck AC, de Lange MMA, Meijer A, van de Kassteele J, van Gageldonk-Lafeber AB, van den Hof S, van der Hoek W. Excess Deaths during Influenza and Coronavirus Disease and Infection-Fatality Rate for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, the Netherlands. Emerg Infect Dis. 2021 Feb;27(2):411-420. doi: 10.3201/eid2702.202999. Epub 2021 Jan 4. PMID: 33395381; PMCID: PMC7853586. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7853586/