After watching a presentation on Excess Deaths by Prof. Martin Neil, I got the bright idea to replicate the method that had been used by a research team in reporting on the annual percent change (APC) in the crude death rate in Australia.
Here is the chart for the US:
The average percentage change from the year prior was 0.04%*, and the standard deviation in percentage change from the year prior was 2.4%. Prior to 2020, the highest-ever annual increase in the crude death rate was 3.2%, coinciding with the Hong Kong Flu of 1968.
That percentage change was 1.3 standard deviations above the mean percentage change.
In 2020, the yearly rise in the crude death rate was 16% — a 6.6 standard deviation increase. Even the 2021 value at far right represents a net increase beyond 2020, because any blue marking above 0 represents an increase from the prior year.
Evidence suggests that, even though the “dry tinder” hypothesis would predict a slow-down in death in 2021 (because of 6 standard deviations of premature 2020 mortality of those who were frail or immuno-compromised), the death rate still rose.
Evidence suggests that US medical/health policy was counter-productive, leading to a very large and unnecessary loss of human life in 2020 and especially in 2021.
*Note that I computed the mean and standard deviation with the year of 2020 in the data, so that if only using years prior to 2020, the real mean and real standard deviation would be lower than reported above — making the “excess” even more excessive.
Reference
[US population from 1950] — Population, including UN projections, 1950 to 2100. OWID. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/un-population-projection-medium-variant?country=~USA
[US deaths from 1950] — Number of births and deaths per year, United States. OWID. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/births-and-deaths-projected-to-2100?country=~USA
The key take away is that the plummeting blue line in 2021 still represents a net increase in excess deaths from 2020. Most people will not process this as an
Increase. That is the problem with an annual year-to-year comparison. A comparison to a constant baseline shows the continuing increase better. I would love to see excess death comparisons against a 2015-19 baseline for ten-twenty most vaccinated countries versus the 10-20 least vaccinated countries. Also excess death charts by age cohorts are very revealing.
.
The Vaccinated
Are Starting To Realize
That Once They Get Sick
They Are Not Going To Get Better.
The Freak-Out Has Begun.