Statistical Significance of Jabs and Excess Death Estimates

Though effect failed to reach statistical significance

If you take the 50 most-populous nations and remove 4 outliers/potential confounders — Afghanistan, China, Russia, and Ukraine — the average daily excess death per million (DEDpM) from rollout to Jan 2023 significantly positively correlates with COVID jab uptake level (more jabs = more excess death):

The sample size is 5 billion people from 46 of the 50 largest nations. In looking just at the effect of the COVID jab on excess death (post-jab excess death minus pre-jab excess death), there is also a positive trend, but it failed to reach significance:

Though a significant correlation wasn’t found between jab uptake level and difference in excess death pre- and post-jab, a cursory glance at the scatterplot reveals that — for most large nations — COVID jabs did in fact lead to an increase in average daily excess death per million.

In only 13 (28%) of these 46 regions did average excess death fall after COVID jab rollouts. Seventy-two percent of regions, a clear majority, saw increases in average daily excess death after jabs were rolled out.

Reference

[2020 populations] — Worldometers. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

[Estimated Daily Excess Death per 100,000 during COVID] — The Economist data. OWID. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

[COVID jab levels] — CNN Global Vaccine Tracker. https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2021/health/global-covid-vaccinations/