I made a prior hypothesis that the reason that the double-dosed numbers in Israel show big drops over the course of 197 days of 2021 was because the jabbed people died. It’d make sense if those jabbed died, because that is exactly the kind of thing which can reduce the share of the population who are double-jabbed.
If non-jabbed people died, then it’d result in an increase in the share of double-jabbed. So, I thought, it must be the case that jabbed people are dying in droves in Israel.
But then I started looking closer at the numbers.
The Economist only reports up to 14,000 total excess deaths in Israel …
… and yet in just those over age 19, there have been a quarter of a million of Israelis who became “unjabbed” (after being jabbed) — all within a span of 197 days, as shows up in cell AA14 in this Excel spreadsheet:
[click to enlarge]
Column Z adds up all of the percentage losses in the share of those doubled-jabbed. For those in their 70’s, 15.2% of jabbed people were “lost-to-follow-up” — and were no longer represented as being jabbed. That alone is 77,000 people.
Two things besides excess death can move someone out of the jabbed category, potentially altering the proportion or ratio of those jabbed: (a) normal (expected) death and (b) moving into an older age group. But both of those things have countermanding factors which limit their effects:
natural and normal deaths will happen among the unjabbed also, preserving the ratio
as jabbed people move up into the next age group, younger jabbed people move up into the original group and replenish the numbers, preserving the ratio
A rough guess at expected death counts by age over the course of 197 days was made using the overall death rate along with adjustment factors taken from the US population (e.g., those in the age group of 50-59 have a death rate that is 78% of the overall, all ages, crude population death rate).
But the numbers are no longer explainable. The natural death rate isn’t even 10% of the sheer number of jabbed people who are apparently “lost-to-follow-up.” Only about 24,000 Israeli adults were expected to die in those 197 days, yet a quarter-million have been “lost.”
The only explanation I can fathom is that the Israeli government stops counting you as having “completed the initial COVID-19 vaccination protocol” — as it says below — if you never made it back for a booster:
But to stop counting you as having done something which you did seems illogical. The qualifier (below the graph title) of having “received all prescribed doses” would seem to settle it, but then why have the word “initial” in the title at all? It doesn’t make sense.
The only avenue for resolving this that comes to mind would be to scour Israel to look for over 200,000 unrecorded body bags — deaths not picked up by outfits such as The Economist.
It is natural to expect for them to obfuscate and lie.