Weekly deaths in many nations were very far below expected prior to COVID, pushing the limits of possibility. Here are the accumulated excess deaths for 20 selected nations:
Notice how it is at left that so many nations had excess death which was so far below expected. Here is a graph with non-cumulative weekly death:
Weekly death counts were up to over 40% below expected, up to 11.6 standard deviations below the mean — given that, in the USA for 2014 to 2019, the standard deviation of week-specific death counts was 3.7%:
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Cell R4 in the spreadsheet above shows the average coefficient of variation in week-specific death. That’s how big the standard deviation is, in percentage terms, in relation to the mean.
And here are the notes showing how the experience in a few nations prior to COVID was so extreme that it is equivalent to finding someone 8 feet tall:
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We are supposed to believe, for instance, that Montenegro really did have death in the week of 5 Jan 2020 which was 43% below expected (cell C7). Using the standard deviation of week-specific death in the USA though (3.7%), that’s 11.6 standard deviations below the mean.
You are more likely to find a man who is 8 feet tall (cell U34) than you are to find a week when death truly did run 43% below expecations. Only about a dozen total people have been confirmed in modern history to be 8 feet tall or more — indicating that death data is to be suspected of being corrupted.
Here are 17 other nations (including small ones) reporting only on a monthly basis but also curiously showing the same death pattern prior to COVID:
A follow-up question is, in the 37 nations in the original and the last chart — all simultaneously having over 3-sigma (over 3 standard deviation) events in just those few weeks prior to COVID — were government health officials withholding death reports in order to “pad the accounts” later under COVID?
Twenty percent of the nations of the world should not have been simultaneously going through over 3-sigma survival phenomena in the weeks prior to COVID. That’s much more rare than finding an 8-foot tall man.
The chance of 37 simutaneous 3-sigma events is miniscule.