One of the earliest Moderna lots produced was 032 H 20 A, manufactured on 13 Sep 2020 — 3 months before Pfizer first got that first Emergency “Countermeasure” Use Authorization, or EUA for short. Moderna Lot 032 H 20 A had 111,600 total doses in it, so you would not expect any more than 1 or 2 total fatal adverse event reports (AERs).
The number of doses in millions would be 0.111600 million, and if a grand total of 2 fatal AERs came in for that lot, then it would be already be considered dangerous — having 17.9 (~ 18) fatal AERs per million doses, which is already about ~16x above what is normally seen in typical years.
Here are the dates of the first 30 of 33 deaths from that lot which all had an onset by Day 180 post-injection:
By the time that the second death came in — during the week beginning on 20 Jan 2021 — alarm bells should have been going off already. By the time that the next two deaths came in (week beginning on 27 Jan 2021), more worry should have set in. By the time that the next 2 deaths came in (6 total; week of 3 Feb 2021) action was required.
But no alert was given, even though the reporting rate for fatal AERs had already reached 53.8 fatal AERs per million doses — assuming that all 111,600 doses of that lot had already made it into people’s arms by then. The next 3 deaths during the week of 10 Feb 2021 brought the reporting rate to 80.6 fatal AERs per million doses.
The next two deaths in the week of 17 Feb 2021 brought it up to 98.6 fatal AERs per million doses. The next 3 deaths during the week of 24 Feb 2021 brought it up to 125.4 fatal AERs per million doses. The next 4 deaths during the week of 3 Mar 2021 brought it up to 161.3 fatal AERs per million doses.
By 2 May 2021, the reporting rate was up to 268.8 fatal AERs per million doses — approximately 244x above normal. Even though those first 30 deaths occurred by 2 May 2021, the reports for them could have taken more time to come in. But given how far above typical that the reporting rate for fatality was, they more-than-likely “knew.”
Even if just half of these deaths had been reported by 2 May 2021, there would already have been enough evidence to rule out the notion that the COVID shots were “safe.” By May of 2021, it would have been known that they were not “safe.”
Dose count for this lot (top row):
Search result for the main analysis:
Additional entry found for similar lot name:
Reference
[ICAN page with a link to the 17Mb PDF file showing Moderna lot sizes] — https://icandecide.org/article/exclusive-moderna-lot-and-dose-data-release/
[MedAlerts VAERS searching tool] — MedAlerts. https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/index.php
[typical reporting rate for fatality is 1.1 fatal AERs per million doses] — https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5201a1.htm