Worst Modern Epidemic (5 wks of 2x death)

Post #1007

The worst modern epidemic is the flu epidemic that occurred in England & Wales in 1951 (green and orange markings added):

It involved 5 weeks of double-death (weekly deaths that were each twice the expected amount). In high-income nations, it’s the world record epidemic death rate (WREDR). That’s an even worse “five-week peak” than the 1918 Spanish Flu. And for all of that flu season, and for all of England, it decisively beat out the two other flu pandemics:

“In England, the 1951 epidemic had similar death patterns. It was responsible for the largest increase in winter deaths from P&I and all causes in the period 1950–1999 (data not shown), with 1.3- to 1.4-fold higher crude excess death rates than those seen in the 1957 and 1968 pandemics.”

But back in 2020, the CDC reported that the deaths in New York City (NYC) for the 52 days from 11 Mar 2020 to 2 May 2020 were just over 4 times what was expected:

7 weeks of quadruple death

If the worst modern epidemic created 5 weeks of double death, then how in the world did NYC end up with 7 weeks of quadruple death? Back in 1951, doctors and hospitals did not have the resources and technology that they did in 2020. But even with the advances in modern medicine, NYC had death rates more than twice the world record.

Because of how astounding it is, it bears repeating:

NYC death rates didn’t just break the world record of epidemic death rates, they more-than-doubled the world record. That’s suspicious.

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Perspective on world records from History

Way back in 656 BC, Chionis of Sparta won the long-jump at the Olympic Games and he achieved the equivalent of a world record which would not be beaten for 2,500 years:

He jumped 7.05 meters (23.1 feet).

It wasn’t until 1900 at the Olympics in Paris that that record was broken, by USA gold medalist, Alvin Kraenzlein, with a long-jump of 7.185 meters (23.6 feet).

But if a news report had come out that the world record of 23.1 feet in the long-jump was overturned by someone who jumped more than 46 feet (more than twice the record), then there’d be cause for suspicion. World records aren’t supposed to be things that get beaten by someone coming along and doing more than twice as good.

A human being long-jumping more than 46 feet would be thought preposterous.

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Reference

[1951 report on the record weekly deaths in the Great Towns of England & Wales] — https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/003591575104400903

[the 1951 flu in England was 30%-40% worse than the 1957 and 1968 flu pandemics] — Viboud C, Tam T, Fleming D, Miller MA, Simonsen L. 1951 influenza epidemic, England and Wales, Canada, and the United States. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Apr;12(4):661-8. doi: 10.3201/eid1204.050695. PMID: 16704816; PMCID: PMC3294686. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3294686/

[CDC report on deaths in NYC in early 2020] — New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) COVID-19 Response Team. Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020;69:603–605. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6919e5