Yes, they lied. But was it Criminal?
Post #1088
By now, it is common knowledge that health authorities and technocrats lied to us about COVID, but the law is clear about when a lie is just a little, innocent fib and when a lie is of a criminal nature, either by being described as Fraud or as Criminal Negligence, etc. COVID modelers assumed a wild-type (Wuhan-1) IFR of 0.9%.
But when you look at the death data from the UK Tech Briefing No. 5, you get a much different estimate from the reality on the ground. Using open-source statistics software that anyone can download (R), along with a binomial distribution, here is how the UK death data compare with the model-assumed IFR:
[click to enlarge, in order to see the reproducible code (anyone can confirm this)]
In this computer simulation with 95 million random IFR values, an upward adjustment was used on the deaths-within-28-days in the UK from lab-confirmed wild-type (Wuhan-1) COVID by 19 Jan 2021, which had come out to 65 deaths from 65,000 wild-type COVID infections (0.1% IFR):
Those 65 deaths got adjusted upward to 73 in order to reflect the time-to-death data collected early on during COVID (89% of all COVID deaths happen by Day 28). The COVID modelers used an IFR estimate that is clearly above the IFR estimate that is required in order to explain the UK death data, but is it criminal?
In disputes in court cases involving paternity tests, a probability threshold which is so high — that it ends up settling those legal cases — is 0.9999999 (a decimal followed by “seven nines”):
Another way to speak of such a probability is to use the complement of it, and that would be one-chance-in-10 million (even lower than your chance of being struck by lightning in the next 12 months). We all know that the COVID modelers were wrong, but to find out if they were so wrong as for it to work out to be criminal, look below:
[click to enlarge, the beta distribution was used for this part of the analysis]
The evidence suggests that COVID technocrats did not just miss the mark, but that they missed the mark by so much that, in court cases, the decisions might come down as criminal negligence, or worse. Their numbers did not come from “rounding errors” — they are too far off of the mark to claim that as a defense.
Reference
[a probability of 0.9999999 is high enough to settle court cases] — REFERENCE: Chakraborty, R. and Stivers, D. N., "Paternity Exclusion by DNA Markers: Effects of Paternal Mutations," Journal of Forensic Sciences, JFSCA, Vol 41, No. 4, July 1996, pp. 671-677. https://archive.gfjc.fiu.edu/workshops/resources/articles/Paternity%20Exclusion%20by%20DNA%20Markers%20Effects%20of%20Paternal%20Mutations.pdf
[“Time-to-death” probability for COVID; using the 95% upper bound of both the mean and the SD of the lognormal model which had fit the actual deaths best] — Linton NM, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, et al. Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2020 Feb;9(2). DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020538. PMID: 32079150; PMCID: PMC7074197. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7074197/
[65 deaths by Day 28 from 65,000 wild-type COVID infections; adjusted up to 73 by dividing by 0.89] — UK Technincal Briefing #5. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/959426/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_5.pdf
[Imperial College model using an evidence-contradicting IFR of 0.9%] — Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
[later COVID model which requires an IFR of at least 0.9% again, just like the Imperial College one did] — Two Years of U.S. COVID-19 Vaccines Have Prevented Millions of Hospitalizations and Deaths. https://doi.org/10.26099/whsf-fp90