… is the chance that the World Health Organization was being honest when they reported 13 deaths from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The Diamond Princess cruise ship was quarantined in the first week of February due to “the COVID.” The last passenger infection was confirmed on 15 Feb 2020.
Using the upper bounds on a model of time-to-death data which had been calibrated to the recorded COVID deaths early on, it was discovered that 90% of all who die of COVID will die by Day 29 after symptom onset:
But that didn’t stop WHO from continuing to record COVID deaths far past when they became very unlikely. Using the generous prospect of pretending that all COVID cases were confirmed on the last day, here are the “WHO reported” deaths, along with individual probabilities to see deaths that late or later after symptom onset:
Deaths 1 & 2
20 Feb 2020 — 5 days after the last passenger infection had gotten confirmed; each death had an individual probability of 0.9826 to have occurred on that day or later (and 0.9826*0.9826 = 0.9655 for the both of them to have occurred on that day or later)
Death 3
24 Feb 2020 — 9 days after the last passenger infection had gotten confirmed; probability of death on that day or later = 0.8348. Probability of all 3 deaths this late or later = .8060
Death 4
27 Feb 2020 — 12 days after the last passenger infection had gotten confirmed; probability of death on that day or later = 0.6613. Probability of all 4 deaths this late or later = .5330
Deaths 5 & 6
29 Feb 2020 — 14 days after the last passenger infection had gotten confirmed; probability of each individual death on that day or later = 0.5468. Probability of both on that day or later = .2990. Probability of all 6 deaths this late or later = .1594
NOTE: Note how nothing overtly curious or suspicious is going on here so far, because samples of deaths this late or later after the last confirmed case were expected to be seen 15.94% — or 16% — of the time by random chance alone.
Death 7
8 Mar 2020 — 22 days after the last passenger infection had gotten confirmed; probability of death on that day or later = 0.2244. Probability of all 7 deaths this late or later = 0.0358
NOTE: Now how the probability of the sample has dipped down below the common cutoff level of 0.05. But, even still, every 28th sample of deaths from hypothetically-identical cruise ships with hypothetically-identical passengers, etc. would have had deaths occur this later or later.
Deaths 8, 9, 10, and 11
2 Apr 2020 — 47 days after the last passenger infection had gotten confirmed; a curious “update” is made to the WHO report without any explanation, even though they do explain two other updates in the report:
“Erratum: Deaths for Syrian Arab Republic has been revised. Cases and new cases for Kuwait have been revised”
These 4 “new” deaths — which come out of “nowhere” (they are not recorded as increases from previous records) — each have a probability for that day or later of 0.0130. Probability of all 4 deaths this late or later = 0.000 000 029. Probability of all 11 deaths this late or later = 0.000 000 001 (One-in-a-billion).
Death 12
13 Apr 2020 — 58 days after the last passenger infection had gotten confirmed; probability of death on that day or later = 0.0042. Probability of all 12 deaths this late or later = 0.000 000 000 004 (One-in-250-billion).
Death 13
17 Apr 2020 — 62 days after the last passenger infection had gotten confirmed; probability of death on that day or later = 0.0029. Probability of all 13 deaths this late or later = 0.000 000 000 000 012 (One-in-82-Trillion).
Evidence suggests that the people at the WHO are lying liars who lie about pandemics. In the last citation below, you’ll see that the distribution of cases peaked on 7 Feb 2020 — even though I charitably used 15 Feb 2020 as that day to begin counting days after symptom onset for all 13 suspicious “COVID deaths.”
Reference
[time-to-COVID-death was log-normal with mean of 14.5 days and SD of 6.7 days; but the 95% upper bounds — which I use so as to account for right truncation — were 17 days and 9.4 days, respectively] — Linton NM, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, Hayashi K, Akhmetzhanov AR, Jung SM, Yuan B, Kinoshita R, Nishiura H. Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data. J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 17;9(2):538. doi: 10.3390/jcm9020538. PMID: 32079150; PMCID: PMC7074197. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7074197/
[Only passengers died, not crew. Last passenger (blue) confirmed positive on 15 Feb 2020. Note that peak cases were 7 Feb 2020.] — Field Briefing: Diamond Princess COVID-19 Cases. National Institute of Infectious Diseases. Japan. https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-02.html
So it appears that 7 people may have died with Covid-19 and possibly from Covid-19 and that the other deaths should not be considered as relevant?